T3.2: Geophysical context analysis

[w2naf]

Description

Analyze how validation results vary with geophysical conditions. This is the kind of analysis the CEDAR (ionospheric science) audience will expect.

Analysis Required

Segmentation by Geophysical Parameters

• Solar zenith angle (SZA): Segment validation metrics by SZA in bins (not just day/night binary). Plot RMSE or bias vs. SZA.
• Geomagnetic activity (Kp index): Retrieve Kp from NOAA or GFZ Potsdam for the analysis period. Segment validation metrics by quiet (Kp < 3) vs. disturbed (Kp >= 3) conditions.
• Solar flux (F10.7): Retrieve F10.7 index. Segment if sufficient variation exists in the dataset.
• Season: Segment by month or season if the dataset spans sufficient time.

Physical Interpretation

• Are there ionospheric conditions under which HamSCI performs notably better or worse?
• Discuss physical reasons for any dependencies found (e.g., D-region absorption at low SZA, enhanced irregularities during storms)
• Consider whether the spatial separation between HamSCI and the reference station contributes differently under different conditions

Figures

• Validation metrics (RMSE, bias) vs. solar zenith angle
• Validation metrics vs. Kp
• Box plots or violin plots of residuals by condition category

Acceptance Criteria

• Validation metrics segmented by solar zenith angle
• Kp-dependent analysis included
• Physical interpretation provided
• Figures suitable for CEDAR presentation

Timeline

• Start: May 29, 2026
• Due: Jun 5, 2026
• Milestone: NSF CEDAR 2026
• Depends on: T2.1: Extend validation dataset to 2-3 months #7, T3.1: Multi-station validation — Millstone Hill #13

Context

Phase 3 of Track 1. This geophysical context analysis is essential for the CEDAR audience. See plans/track1-workplan.md.