diff --git a/scripts/check-releasable-commit-types.ts b/scripts/check-releasable-commit-types.ts
index 199a06e8f..f0638a0ea 100644
--- a/scripts/check-releasable-commit-types.ts
+++ b/scripts/check-releasable-commit-types.ts
@@ -83,16 +83,43 @@ export function isBreaking(subject: string): boolean {
   return /^[a-zA-Z]+(?:\([^)]*\))?!:/.test(subject.trim());
 }
 
+/** PURE. Is this file's diff nothing but a `"version"` bump in a package manifest (#10286)?
+ *
+ *  release-please's own release commit is `chore(release): …` and its whole job is to write the new version
+ *  into `<pkg>/package.json` -- a path {@link publishedSourcePrefixes} matches by construction. So without
+ *  this, the guard fires on EVERY release PR: the one commit shape nobody hand-writes, that a maintainer
+ *  therefore cannot fix by rewording, and whose flagged "would never reach npm" claim is exactly backwards
+ *  (it is the commit that performs the release). That is precisely the ordinary-case firing this file's own
+ *  `isPublishedFile` note warns gets a guard switched off.
+ *
+ *  Deliberately narrower than matching the `chore(release):` subject: a hand-written commit that borrows the
+ *  subject while editing a dependency range or `exports` map is still a real stranded release, so the
+ *  exemption is keyed on what the diff DID, not on what the subject claims. An empty diff (the default
+ *  accessor, or a caller that cannot supply one) proves nothing and stays flagged. */
+export function isVersionOnlyManifestBump(file: string, diff: string): boolean {
+  if (!file.endsWith("/package.json")) return false;
+  const changed = diff
+    .split("\n")
+    .filter((line) => /^[+-]/.test(line) && !/^(\+\+\+|---)/.test(line));
+  if (changed.length === 0) return false;
+  return changed.every((line) => /^[+-]\s*"version":\s*"[^"]*",?\s*$/.test(line));
+}
+
 /**
  * PURE. The commits that change published source under a type release-please will not release.
  *
  * A commit carrying a `Release-As:` footer is exempt: that is release-please's own documented mechanism for
  * forcing a version, so a commit using it has already answered this check's question.
+ *
+ * A path whose only change is a manifest version bump is dropped from consideration (#10286) -- see
+ * {@link isVersionOnlyManifestBump}. A commit left with no other published-source path is release-please's
+ * own release commit and is not stranded.
  */
 export function findStrandedCommits(
   commits: readonly CommitUnderReview[],
   config: ReleasePleaseConfig,
   bodyOf: (sha: string) => string = () => "",
+  diffOf: (sha: string, file: string) => string = () => "",
 ): StrandedCommit[] {
   const hidden = hiddenCommitTypes(config);
   const prefixes = publishedSourcePrefixes(config);
@@ -102,8 +129,10 @@ export function findStrandedCommits(
     if (type === null || !hidden.has(type) || isBreaking(commit.subject)) continue;
     const paths = commit.files.filter((file) => isPublishedFile(file) && prefixes.some((prefix) => file.startsWith(prefix)));
     if (paths.length === 0) continue;
+    const releasable = paths.filter((file) => !isVersionOnlyManifestBump(file, diffOf(commit.sha, file)));
+    if (releasable.length === 0) continue;
     if (/^\s*Release-As:/im.test(bodyOf(commit.sha))) continue;
-    stranded.push({ sha: commit.sha, subject: commit.subject, type, paths });
+    stranded.push({ sha: commit.sha, subject: commit.subject, type, paths: releasable });
   }
   return stranded;
 }
@@ -165,7 +194,12 @@ if (process.argv[1] && import.meta.url === pathToFileURL(process.argv[1]).href)
     process.exit(0);
   }
   const config = readConfig();
-  const stranded = findStrandedCommits(commits, config, (sha) => git(["log", "-1", "--format=%b", sha]));
+  const stranded = findStrandedCommits(
+    commits,
+    config,
+    (sha) => git(["log", "-1", "--format=%b", sha]),
+    (sha, file) => git(["show", "--format=", "--unified=0", sha, "--", file]),
+  );
   if (stranded.length === 0) {
     process.stdout.write(`releasable-commit-types: ${commits.length} commit(s) checked, none would be stranded.\n`);
     process.exit(0);
diff --git a/test/unit/check-releasable-commit-types.test.ts b/test/unit/check-releasable-commit-types.test.ts
index f7bcd31a9..24b0769ef 100644
--- a/test/unit/check-releasable-commit-types.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/check-releasable-commit-types.test.ts
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   hiddenCommitTypes,
   isBreaking,
   isPublishedFile,
+  isVersionOnlyManifestBump,
   publishedSourcePrefixes,
   readConfig,
   type CommitUnderReview,
@@ -156,6 +157,72 @@ describe("findStrandedCommits", () => {
     expect(findStrandedCommits([commit()], CONFIG, () => "we could use Release-As: here")).toHaveLength(1);
   });
 
+  // #10286: release-please's own release commit is `chore(release):` and writes <pkg>/package.json, which
+  // publishedSourcePrefixes matches by construction -- so before this, the guard fired on every release PR.
+  it("REGRESSION: allows release-please's own release commit -- a version-only manifest bump", () => {
+    const releaseCommit = commit({
+      subject: "chore(release): cut ui-kit v1.7.0",
+      files: ["packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json"],
+    });
+    const diff = ['-  "version": "1.6.0",', '+  "version": "1.7.0",'].join("\n");
+    expect(findStrandedCommits([releaseCommit], CONFIG, () => "", () => diff)).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it("still flags a chore that changes a manifest BEYOND its version", () => {
+    // The reason the exemption keys on the diff rather than the `chore(release):` subject: a dependency range
+    // is part of what a consumer resolves, so stranding one is the very bug this guard exists for.
+    const depEdit = commit({
+      subject: "chore(release): cut ui-kit v1.7.0",
+      files: ["packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json"],
+    });
+    const diff = ['-  "version": "1.6.0",', '+  "version": "1.7.0",', '-    "recharts": "^3.9.0"', '+    "recharts": "^3.10.1"'].join("\n");
+    expect(findStrandedCommits([depEdit], CONFIG, () => "", () => diff)).toHaveLength(1);
+  });
+
+  it("reports only the paths that are not version-only bumps when a commit mixes both", () => {
+    const mixed = commit({
+      subject: "chore(release): cut ui-kit v1.7.0",
+      files: ["packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", "packages/loopover-ui-kit/src/components/chart.tsx"],
+    });
+    const diffOf = (_sha: string, file: string) =>
+      file.endsWith("package.json") ? '-  "version": "1.6.0",\n+  "version": "1.7.0",' : "-old\n+new";
+    const [stranded] = findStrandedCommits([mixed], CONFIG, () => "", diffOf);
+    expect(stranded?.paths).toEqual(["packages/loopover-ui-kit/src/components/chart.tsx"]);
+  });
+
+  it("keeps flagging when no diff is available -- an unprovable exemption is not an exemption", () => {
+    const releaseCommit = commit({
+      subject: "chore(release): cut ui-kit v1.7.0",
+      files: ["packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json"],
+    });
+    expect(findStrandedCommits([releaseCommit], CONFIG)).toHaveLength(1);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("isVersionOnlyManifestBump", () => {
+  const bump = '-  "version": "1.6.0",\n+  "version": "1.7.0",';
+
+  it("accepts a manifest whose only changed lines are the version field", () => {
+    expect(isVersionOnlyManifestBump("packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", bump)).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it("ignores the diff header lines rather than counting them as changes", () => {
+    const withHeader = ["--- a/packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", "+++ b/packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", bump].join("\n");
+    expect(isVersionOnlyManifestBump("packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", withHeader)).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it("rejects a non-manifest file however its diff reads", () => {
+    expect(isVersionOnlyManifestBump("packages/loopover-ui-kit/src/version.ts", bump)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("rejects an empty diff -- proves nothing, so it cannot exempt", () => {
+    expect(isVersionOnlyManifestBump("packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", "")).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("rejects a manifest diff carrying any non-version change", () => {
+    expect(isVersionOnlyManifestBump("packages/loopover-ui-kit/package.json", `${bump}\n+  "sideEffects": false,`)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
   it("ignores a non-conventional subject rather than guessing at its type", () => {
     expect(findStrandedCommits([commit({ subject: "merge branch main" })], CONFIG)).toEqual([]);
   });