diff --git a/src/router/RouterRuntime.ts b/src/router/RouterRuntime.ts
index a40dbbb9..b22bd6a8 100644
--- a/src/router/RouterRuntime.ts
+++ b/src/router/RouterRuntime.ts
@@ -87,12 +87,13 @@ export function createRouterRuntime(
   config: RouterConfig,
   deps: RouterRuntimeDeps,
 ): RouterRuntime {
+  const defaultBaselineModel = config.scenarios?.default
+    ? { provider: config.scenarios.default.provider, model: config.scenarios.default.model }
+    : undefined;
   const stats = new TokenStatsCollector({
     ...config.stats,
     enabled: config.stats?.enabled ?? false,
-    baselineModel: config.scenarios?.default
-      ? { provider: config.scenarios.default.provider, model: config.scenarios.default.model }
-      : config.stats?.baselineModel,
+    baselineModel: config.stats?.baselineModel ?? defaultBaselineModel,
   });
   const externalStore = !!deps.sessionStore;
   const sessionStore = deps.sessionStore ?? new SessionRouterStore({
diff --git a/tests/router/RouterRuntime.stats.test.ts b/tests/router/RouterRuntime.stats.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1b4eebae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/router/RouterRuntime.stats.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
+import assert from "node:assert/strict";
+import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from "node:fs";
+import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
+import { dirname, join } from "node:path";
+import test from "node:test";
+import type {
+  CanonicalModelEvent,
+  CanonicalModelResponse,
+  ModelRuntime,
+} from "../../src/model/index.js";
+import { DEFAULT_MODEL_CAPABILITIES } from "../../src/model/protocol/capabilities.js";
+import { DEFAULT_MULTIMODAL_CONSTRAINTS } from "../../src/model/protocol/multimodal.js";
+import { createRouterRuntime } from "../../src/router/RouterRuntime.js";
+import type { RouterModelRef, RouterStatsConfig } from "../../src/router/config/schema.js";
+
+const cheapDefaultModel: RouterModelRef = {
+  id: "cheap/c",
+  provider: "cheap",
+  model: "c",
+};
+
+const expensiveBaselineModel: RouterModelRef = {
+  id: "expensive/e",
+  provider: "expensive",
+  model: "e",
+};
+
+function createRuntime(): ModelRuntime {
+  return {
+    async *stream(): AsyncIterable<CanonicalModelEvent> {
+      yield { type: "message_start", role: "assistant" };
+      yield { type: "text_delta", text: "ok" };
+      yield { type: "message_end", finishReason: "stop" };
+    },
+    async complete(): Promise<CanonicalModelResponse> {
+      return {
+        role: "assistant",
+        content: [{ type: "text", text: "ok" }],
+        finishReason: "stop",
+      };
+    },
+    getCapabilities: () => DEFAULT_MODEL_CAPABILITIES,
+    getMultimodal: () => DEFAULT_MULTIMODAL_CONSTRAINTS,
+    getProviderBaseUrl: () => undefined,
+  };
+}
+
+function statsConfig(extra: Partial<RouterStatsConfig> = {}): RouterStatsConfig {
+  const dir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "pilotdeck-router-stats-"));
+  return {
+    enabled: true,
+    filePath: join(dir, "stats.jsonl"),
+    modelPricing: {
+      "cheap/c": { input: 1, output: 0 },
+      "expensive/e": { input: 10, output: 0 },
+    },
+    ...extra,
+  };
+}
+
+function cleanupStats(config: RouterStatsConfig): void {
+  if (config.filePath) {
+    rmSync(dirname(config.filePath), { recursive: true, force: true });
+  }
+}
+
+function observeOneRequest(
+  router: ReturnType<typeof createRouterRuntime>,
+  model: RouterModelRef,
+): void {
+  router.stats.observe({
+    sessionId: "session-1",
+    turnId: "turn-1",
+    scenarioType: "default",
+    resolvedFrom: "scenario",
+    provider: model.provider,
+    model: model.model,
+    usage: {
+      inputTokens: 1_000_000,
+      outputTokens: 0,
+      totalTokens: 1_000_000,
+    },
+    startedAt: "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
+    endedAt: "2026-06-23T00:00:01.000Z",
+  });
+}
+
+test("explicit stats baseline wins over the default scenario baseline", async () => {
+  const stats = statsConfig({ baselineModel: expensiveBaselineModel });
+  const router = createRouterRuntime(
+    {
+      scenarios: { default: cheapDefaultModel },
+      stats,
+    },
+    { modelRuntime: createRuntime() },
+  );
+
+  try {
+    observeOneRequest(router, cheapDefaultModel);
+
+    const record = router.stats.recent(1)[0];
+    assert.equal(record?.cost?.total, 1);
+    assert.equal(record?.baselineCost, 10);
+    assert.equal(router.stats.snapshot().totalSavedCost, 9);
+  } finally {
+    await router.shutdown();
+    cleanupStats(stats);
+  }
+});
+
+test("default scenario remains the stats baseline when no explicit baseline is configured", async () => {
+  const stats = statsConfig();
+  const router = createRouterRuntime(
+    {
+      scenarios: { default: cheapDefaultModel },
+      stats,
+    },
+    { modelRuntime: createRuntime() },
+  );
+
+  try {
+    observeOneRequest(router, expensiveBaselineModel);
+
+    const record = router.stats.recent(1)[0];
+    assert.equal(record?.cost?.total, 10);
+    assert.equal(record?.baselineCost, 1);
+    assert.equal(router.stats.snapshot().totalSavedCost, -9);
+  } finally {
+    await router.shutdown();
+    cleanupStats(stats);
+  }
+});
+
+test("explicit stats baseline is used when no default scenario exists", async () => {
+  const stats = statsConfig({ baselineModel: expensiveBaselineModel });
+  const router = createRouterRuntime(
+    {
+      stats,
+    },
+    { modelRuntime: createRuntime() },
+  );
+
+  try {
+    observeOneRequest(router, cheapDefaultModel);
+
+    const record = router.stats.recent(1)[0];
+    assert.equal(record?.cost?.total, 1);
+    assert.equal(record?.baselineCost, 10);
+    assert.equal(router.stats.snapshot().totalSavedCost, 9);
+  } finally {
+    await router.shutdown();
+    cleanupStats(stats);
+  }
+});