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feat: probability-based precipitation notification (not just transitions) #566

@Orinks

Description

@Orinks

Description

The current minutely notification system only fires on dry-to-wet or wet-to-dry transitions detected in the intensity data. If it's already raining when AW polls, or if the probability is high but intensity hasn't crossed the threshold yet, no notification fires.

Alexa and AccuWeather notify on "rain expected" even without a detected start/stop transition.

Proposed Solution

Add a new notification type: "Precipitation expected in next hour" based on probability, not just intensity transitions.

Logic:

  • If any minutely data point in the next 60 minutes has precipProbability > 0.5 (configurable) AND current conditions are dry, fire a notification
  • Example: "Rain likely in the next hour (70% chance)"
  • Deduplicate with a signature that includes the probability band (50-70%, 70-90%, 90%+) so it doesn't re-fire every poll
  • This complements the existing transition-based notifications, not replaces them

Settings

  • New checkbox: "Notify when precipitation is likely" (default: True)
  • Probability threshold slider or dropdown (50%, 60%, 70%, 80%)

Impact

Catches scenarios the transition detector misses — rain that's probable but hasn't started yet, or was already in progress when polling began

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