Current fire modules vastly underestimate variance in annual area burned

[SteveCumming]

See my poster from the JSM August 2018; I should give a lab meeting talk on this. Deets to follow

[achubaty]

any followup on this?

[achubaty]

@SteveCumming is this something you want to come to and discuss within the next few months?

[SteveCumming]

sure, I could do that. It remains a preoccupation of mine...and a 1st-approximation solution is almost in my grasp.

One thing we could do easily (if you and Ian are still working on the scfm code) is to estimate the variances of:

1. the sizes of the sample of escaped fires used to parameterize scfm and
2. the sizes of the escaped simulated fires

and compare them. I expect that [1] >> [2], but let's find out.

[SteveCumming]

Further to this, here's a possible solution:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aba101/meta