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EV Parlay Pro - Discord Bot

Overview

A Discord bot that finds positive expected value (EV) sports betting parlays using The Odds API. The bot analyzes real-time odds from multiple sportsbooks, removes the vig (bookmaker margin), calculates fair probabilities, and identifies profitable parlay opportunities.

Features

  • Real-time odds analysis from multiple sportsbooks via The Odds API
  • Vig removal using proportional method for fair probability estimation
  • Kelly Criterion stake sizing with conservative 15% clip and 50% fractional Kelly
  • Correlation adjustments for same-game parlays (0.90 penalty per additional leg)
  • Multi-sport support: NBA, NFL, NHL
  • Multiple markets: Moneylines (ML), Spreads, Totals (Over/Under)
  • Flexible filtering: By sportsbook, minimum EV threshold, same-game restrictions
  • Rich Discord embeds showing parlay details, win probability, and suggested stakes

Commands

  • /ping - Check if bot is online
  • /best [sport] [books] [min_ev] [max_legs] [top_n] [same_game_only] - Find top +EV parlays

Environment Variables

  • DISCORD_BOT_TOKEN - Discord bot authentication token (required)
  • ODDS_API_KEY - The Odds API key (required)
  • BANKROLL - Bankroll amount for Kelly sizing (default: 1000)
  • ODDS_REGION - Odds region: us, uk, eu, au (default: us)
  • BOOKS - Comma-separated list of sportsbooks to include (optional)

Architecture

  • Backend: Python 3.11 with discord.py
  • Web server: Flask keepalive server on port 8080
  • API integration: The Odds API for real-time betting odds
  • Discord integration: Replit Discord connector for authentication

Math & Methodology

  1. Vig Removal: Uses proportional method to remove bookmaker margin from market prices
  2. Fair Probability: Calculates true probability after vig removal
  3. Parlay Pricing: Multiplies decimal odds across legs
  4. Correlation Penalty: Applies 0.90^(n-1) penalty for same-game parlays
  5. Kelly Criterion: Calculates optimal stake size, clipped at 15%, uses 50% fractional Kelly
  6. EV Calculation: (P_win × Payout) - 1

Project Structure

main.py - Discord bot with EV calculation engine
.gitignore - Python gitignore patterns
replit.md - Project documentation

Recent Changes

  • Initial project setup (Oct 27, 2025)
  • Discord integration configured
  • Core EV calculation engine implemented
  • Added README.md with setup instructions
  • Configured workflow to run Discord bot

Setup Required

⚠️ Important: You must enable "Message Content Intent" in the Discord Developer Portal for the bot to work:

  1. Go to https://discord.com/developers/applications
  2. Select your application
  3. Go to Bot → Privileged Gateway Intents
  4. Enable "MESSAGE CONTENT INTENT"
  5. Save changes and restart the bot workflow

See README.md for complete setup instructions.