From 1603761a54daeb2846041a3f90bd8276f43e3585 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Tomasz Kowalczyk Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 12:36:33 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] =?UTF-8?q?fix(statements):=20correct=20the=202026-07-?= =?UTF-8?q?28=20weekly=20=E2=80=94=20unresolved=20window,=20not=20a=200%?= =?UTF-8?q?=20hit=20rate?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit This statement is live at `draft: false` and reads "263 alerts, hit rate 0.00". To a reader that says we made 263 calls and got every one wrong. What it actually means is that none of the 263 has resolved yet: measured on the producer host, 111 of 111 alerted markets join `markets` and none carries an outcome, against 97.3% outcome coverage warehouse-wide. Not a bad week and not a data gap. Every statement back to May carried 0.35-0.71, all of them tagged `[politics, macro-finance]`. This is the first Macro-only one — Politics was retired 2026-07-24, and Politics markets (elections, daily events) were supplying essentially the whole resolved sample, while Macro markets resolve months out. `hypothetical_pnl_usd: 0.0` and `top_wallets: []` had a separate cause: both are derived from tables that live only in the slim warehouse, and the producer was reading a warehouse that structurally cannot hold them. Regenerated from the corrected producer against the same 2026-07-22 → 2026-07-28 window. `alert_count`, `period_start`, `period_end`, `hit_rate`, `title` and `draft` are unchanged — 263 alerts reproduces exactly, which is what confirms the window is identical and only the reporting was wrong. summary "hit rate 0.00." → "outcomes pending (0 of 263 resolved)." hypothetical_pnl_usd 0.0 → 199.11 top_wallets [] → 3 entries `hit_rate: 0.0` deliberately stays. It is a required non-nullable number in the schema, and the honest fix — reporting on markets RESOLVED in the window rather than alerted in it — needs a resolution-time backfill that does not exist yet. The summary now carries the denominator so the figure cannot be misread alone. Producer: auditmos/ogsfrompoly 554f537 · refs auditmos/ogsfrompoly#236, #234 --- src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md | 17 ++++++++++++++--- 1 file changed, 14 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md b/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md index 34aabb8..3842a7d 100644 --- a/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md +++ b/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md @@ -3,22 +3,33 @@ schema_version: 1 type: weekly draft: false title: Week of 2026-07-22 -summary: ogsfrompoly weekly statement — 263 alerts, hit rate 0.00. +summary: ogsfrompoly weekly statement — 263 alerts, outcomes pending (0 of 263 resolved). period_start: '2026-07-22' period_end: '2026-07-28' bankroll_usd: 10000.0 alert_count: 263 hit_rate: 0.0 -hypothetical_pnl_usd: 0.0 +hypothetical_pnl_usd: 199.11 categories: - macro-finance -top_wallets: [] +top_wallets: +- truncated_id: wallet_0f59 + category: macro-finance + hypothetical_pnl_usd: 33.92999999999998 +- truncated_id: wallet_996b + category: macro-finance + hypothetical_pnl_usd: -3.1199999999999855 +- truncated_id: wallet_83f9 + category: macro-finance + hypothetical_pnl_usd: 1.150000000000004 --- ## Strategy track record (2026-07-22 → 2026-07-28) Generated from ogsfrompoly warehouse for the weekly window 2026-07-22 → 2026-07-28. 263 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public category (macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived. +Top wallets are ranked by realized PnL magnitude. A wallet-level `hypothetical_pnl_usd`, when present, is the $100-notional alert-model PnL for that wallet in this same window; it is an annotation, not the ranking key. + ## Methodology reminder See [/methodology](/methodology) for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone. From 52b05b2d9eadcfe2167bf478b51959f84b24703d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Tomasz Kowalczyk Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 12:40:42 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] fix(statements): unpublish the 2026-07-28 weekly until the schema can express "0 of 0" MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit CI caught what the correction could not fix, and it was right to. With `hypothetical_pnl_usd` restored to its true 199.11, `findPublishedInconsistencies` fires: alert_count=263 with hit_rate=0 but hypothetical_pnl_usd=199.11 > 0 (0 resolved alerts collapsing 0/0 → 0?) That guard's own comment already names the diagnosis — "the tell of a `0/0 → 0` resolution collapse" — and that is exactly what this window is. It could not fire before only because `hypothetical_pnl_usd` was ALSO 0, from the upstream bug that left the producer reading a warehouse without the derived tables. Fixing that made the pathology visible, which is the guard working as designed. The guard cannot be satisfied honestly under `schema_version: 1`. There is no field that separates "0 of 0 resolved" from "0 of 240 resolved", so a truthful statement for an unresolved window is unpublishable: either `hit_rate: 0` asserts a 0% success rate that did not happen, or the PnL is falsified back to 0 to match. Neither is acceptable, and weakening the guard would discard the one check that caught this. So the statement goes to `draft: true`. Drafts are exempt from the guard and excluded by every consumer (`excludeDrafts` in the index, feeds and statements.md — there is no per-statement route), which takes the false "263 alerts, hit rate 0.00" claim off the live site immediately. The corrected numbers stay in the file so republishing is a one-line flip once the schema can carry a resolved count. Unblocking work: add `resolved_count` and bump to `schema_version: 2` across the producer and this repo, then teach the sanity check that `resolved_count === 0` makes hit_rate vacuous rather than inconsistent. Tracked as auditmos/ogsfrompoly#236. Refs auditmos/ogsfrompoly#234, auditmos/ogsfrompoly#236 --- src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md b/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md index 3842a7d..1d840cf 100644 --- a/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md +++ b/src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ --- schema_version: 1 type: weekly -draft: false +draft: true title: Week of 2026-07-22 summary: ogsfrompoly weekly statement — 263 alerts, outcomes pending (0 of 263 resolved). period_start: '2026-07-22'