diff --git a/src/content/statements/2026-07-monthly.md b/src/content/statements/2026-07-monthly.md index 2645d9e..3362ea5 100644 --- a/src/content/statements/2026-07-monthly.md +++ b/src/content/statements/2026-07-monthly.md @@ -1,42 +1,48 @@ --- schema_version: 1 type: monthly -draft: true +draft: false title: July 2026 -summary: ogsfrompoly monthly statement — DRAFT, numbers pending month close. +summary: ogsfrompoly monthly statement — 612 alerts, hit rate 0.51 (80 markets resolved + in this period). period_start: '2026-07-01' period_end: '2026-07-31' bankroll_usd: 10000.0 -alert_count: 0 -hit_rate: 0.0 -hypothetical_pnl_usd: 0.0 +alert_count: 612 +hit_rate: 0.5125 +resolved_count: 80 +hypothetical_pnl_usd: 850.1100000000004 categories: -- politics - macro-finance -top_wallets: [] +top_wallets: +- truncated_id: wallet_83f9 + category: macro-finance + hypothetical_pnl_usd: -41.099999999999994 +- truncated_id: wallet_0f59 + category: macro-finance + hypothetical_pnl_usd: -85.95 +- truncated_id: wallet_5abe + category: macro-finance + hypothetical_pnl_usd: 8.499999999999996 pnl: revenue_usd: 0.0 opex_usd: 50.0 net_usd: -50.0 - runway_months: null + runway_months: 6 --- ## Strategy track record (2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31) -**DRAFT — regenerate this section from the ogsfrompoly warehouse at month close (2026-08-01).** The frontmatter above carries placeholder zeros for `alert_count`, `hit_rate`, `hypothetical_pnl_usd`, and an empty `top_wallets`; these are mechanically derived and must be filled before flipping `draft: false`. +Generated from ogsfrompoly warehouse for the monthly window 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31. 612 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public category (macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived. -Top wallets are ranked by realized PnL magnitude. A wallet-level `hypothetical_pnl_usd`, when present, is the $100-notional alert-model PnL for that wallet in this same window; it is an annotation, not the ranking key. Wallet IDs are truncated to their last four hex characters; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page. +Top wallets are ranked by realized PnL magnitude. A wallet-level `hypothetical_pnl_usd`, when present, is the $100-notional alert-model PnL for that wallet in this same window; it is an annotation, not the ranking key. ## Project P&L -Revenue, opex, net, and runway are sourced from the operator's ledger (not the trading warehouse); the `pnl` block above holds the canonical numbers. - -**Operating expenses** begin this month: the ogsfrompoly polynode is **$50/mo**, first charge posting in July, booked cash-basis in the month the charge lands. This is the sole line item — no other cash costs (domain, Cloudflare, data) are billed against the project ledger yet. - -**Revenue** is the realized copytrading income booked to the operator ledger for the period — settled gains only, not mark-to-market on open positions. The copytrading pool went live on 2026-07-24, seeded with **100 USDC and 225 POL** and run as its own capital base — separate from both the $10,000 hypothetical bankroll the strategy track record references and the opex reserve. July therefore reflects roughly one week of activity. Revenue is measured as the value **swept from the pool to the collection wallet** during the period — not open-position marks. **DRAFT placeholder: $0** — replace with the actual swept total at month close. - -**Net** is revenue minus opex. **Runway** reads `covered` (`null`) only when revenue meets or exceeds opex; otherwise it is a finite months-of-runway figure against the cash reserve earmarked for opex (distinct from the $10,000 trading bankroll the strategy claims reference). With the placeholder $0 revenue against $50 opex, net is **−$50** and runway is provisional pending the realized revenue figure and, if net stays negative, the operator's opex reserve. +Revenue was **$0** for 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31. Operating expenses were **$50** (aggregate ledger total; no line-item breakdown was supplied). Net was **-$50** — the first month the project runs a burn, as the standing $50/mo polynode charge begins and the copytrading pool has not yet swept realized revenue to the collection wallet. **Runway is 6 months**: the cash reserve earmarked for opex covers six months of that burn at the current rate. That reserve is an operator ledger figure, distinct from both the $10,000 hypothetical bankroll the strategy track record references and the copytrading pool's own capital base. ## Methodology reminder See [/methodology](/methodology) for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone. + +The hit rate scores the markets that **resolved** during this period, whenever they were alerted. Statements published before 2026-07-31 scored the alerts *emitted* in the period instead, so the two series are **not comparable** and should not be read as one track record.