|
608 | 608 | ] |
609 | 609 | }, |
610 | 610 | { |
611 | | - "cell_type": "code", |
612 | | - "execution_count": null, |
| 611 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
613 | 612 | "id": "e8d7b8b3-1680-4d53-ae30-4804f79d2868", |
614 | 613 | "metadata": {}, |
615 | | - "outputs": [], |
616 | | - "source": [] |
| 614 | + "source": [ |
| 615 | + "When creating a prediction for a future time step there are 3 different approaches that could take place. \n", |
| 616 | + " 1. Using the last observation and carrying whatever that value was on for the rest of time\n", |
| 617 | + " 2. Take a average of all the observations already seen and use that to predict the next time steps\n", |
| 618 | + " 3. A combination of 1 and 2 which is also known as Simple Exponential Smoothing \n", |
| 619 | + "\n" |
| 620 | + ] |
617 | 621 | }, |
618 | 622 | { |
619 | | - "cell_type": "code", |
620 | | - "execution_count": null, |
| 623 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
621 | 624 | "id": "915fd2f8-fb4a-4937-aac0-09a36bef5785", |
622 | 625 | "metadata": {}, |
623 | | - "outputs": [], |
624 | | - "source": [] |
| 626 | + "source": [ |
| 627 | + "\\begin{align} \n", |
| 628 | + "y_{T+h|T} = \\alpha y_T + (1 - \\alpha)\\hat{y}_{T|T-1}\\\\ \n", |
| 629 | + "\\alpha\\ \\text{is a parameter with a value between 0 and 1.} \\\\\n", |
| 630 | + "y_T\\ \\text{is an observation at time T which is a future point}\n", |
| 631 | + "\\end{align}" |
| 632 | + ] |
625 | 633 | }, |
626 | 634 | { |
627 | | - "cell_type": "code", |
628 | | - "execution_count": null, |
| 635 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
629 | 636 | "id": "363ad686-aaf7-427d-9362-87cd366317c6", |
630 | 637 | "metadata": {}, |
631 | | - "outputs": [], |
632 | | - "source": [] |
| 638 | + "source": [ |
| 639 | + "\\begin{align} \n", |
| 640 | + "\n", |
| 641 | + "\\text{if}\\ \\alpha = 0\\\\ y_{T+h|T} = \\hat{y}_{T|T-1}\n", |
| 642 | + "\\end{align}" |
| 643 | + ] |
633 | 644 | }, |
634 | 645 | { |
635 | 646 | "cell_type": "code", |
|
664 | 675 | "name": "python", |
665 | 676 | "nbconvert_exporter": "python", |
666 | 677 | "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", |
667 | | - "version": "3.9.6" |
| 678 | + "version": "3.14.2" |
668 | 679 | } |
669 | 680 | }, |
670 | 681 | "nbformat": 4, |
|
0 commit comments