These rules apply to ALL tasks involving strategy, trade-offs, or decisions with time dimensions. Always active.
- Before recommending a strategy, ask: "Does this choice get stronger or weaker as time passes?"
- Choices that compound positively (skills, relationships, platforms, knowledge) deserve investment even at short-term cost. Choices that decay (arbitrage, hype, brute-force advantages) need extraction timelines.
- Good and bad choices diverge exponentially. A small edge that compounds beats a large one-time advantage.
- Determine which phase the situation is in: defensive (preserving resources), stalemate (building force while appearing stable), or offensive (deploying accumulated advantage).
- The correct strategy depends on the phase. Offensive moves during defensive phases waste resources. Patience during offensive windows wastes opportunity.
- Stalemate is not inaction — it is the phase where force ratios actually shift. Most important work is invisible during this phase.
- Look for tipping points: conditions where small additional input produces disproportionate output.
- Current trajectory is not destiny. Phase transitions (穷则变，变则通) mean today's losing position may contain the seed of tomorrow's advantage.
- Linear extrapolation of current trends is almost always wrong across phase boundaries.
- Before judging an outcome as good or bad, ask: "Over what time horizon?" Short-term loss may be long-term gain and vice versa (塞翁失马).
- Manage what others see during accumulation phases (韬光养晦). Strategic restraint is not weakness — it preserves optionality.
- Compete for sustainability, not primacy (流水不争先). The question is not "who is ahead now?" but "whose position improves with time?"
- Did I identify whether this choice compounds positively or negatively over time?
- Did I name the current phase and match my strategy to it?
- Am I projecting linearly across a likely phase transition?
- Is my evaluation window long enough, or am I judging a multi-year play on quarterly results?
- Am I recommending patience because the strategy is right, or because change is uncomfortable? (sunk cost check)