-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
Expand file tree
/
Copy pathrs_base.py
More file actions
579 lines (495 loc) · 26.6 KB
/
rs_base.py
File metadata and controls
579 lines (495 loc) · 26.6 KB
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
# rs_mcc_only.py
# McCormick (McC) DRO procurement optimization — CVXPY MILP only
# No Mosek, no CPP, no SAA.
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import math
import cvxpy as cp
import warnings
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from datetime import datetime
from hmmlearn import hmm
from itertools import product
import time
# External OOS evaluator (your module)
from oos_analys_RS import OOS_analys
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
# ============================ HMM helper ============================
def train_hmm_with_sorted_states(data, n_components=2, random_state=42, covariance_type='full', n_iter=100):
"""
Train a Gaussian HMM on 1-D labels; sort states by mean so indices are stable/interpretable.
Returns:
model (fitted and re-ordered),
remapped_states (np.array),
sorted_transmat,
sorted_means,
state_counts (np.array length n_components)
"""
model = hmm.GaussianHMM(
n_components=n_components,
covariance_type=covariance_type,
n_iter=n_iter,
random_state=random_state
)
model.fit(data)
hidden_states = model.predict(data)
means = model.means_.flatten()
sort_idx = np.argsort(means)
mapping = {old: new for new, old in enumerate(sort_idx)}
remapped = np.array([mapping[s] for s in hidden_states])
state_counts = np.bincount(remapped, minlength=n_components)
sorted_transmat = model.transmat_[sort_idx][:, sort_idx]
sorted_means = model.means_[sort_idx]
sorted_covars = model.covars_[sort_idx]
model.transmat_ = sorted_transmat
model.means_ = sorted_means
model.covars_ = sorted_covars
return model, remapped, sorted_transmat, sorted_means, state_counts
# ============================ demand generators ============================
from scipy.special import gamma as sp_gamma
from scipy.optimize import fsolve
def get_gaussian_demand(time_horizon, mean, std_dev, rho, M, seed=None):
if seed is not None:
np.random.seed(seed)
mean_vector = np.full((time_horizon,), mean)
covariance_matrix = np.diag(np.full((time_horizon,), std_dev**2))
cov_value = rho * std_dev**2
for j in range(time_horizon - 1):
covariance_matrix[j, j+1] = covariance_matrix[j+1, j] = cov_value
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", message="covariance is not symmetric positive-semidefinite")
samples = np.random.multivariate_normal(mean_vector, covariance_matrix, M)
samples = np.round(samples).astype(int).T
return pd.DataFrame(samples)
def get_gamma_demand(time_horizon, mean, std_dev, M, seed=None):
if seed is not None:
np.random.seed(seed)
k = mean**2 / std_dev**2
theta = std_dev**2 / mean
m = time_horizon * M
samples = np.random.gamma(shape=k, scale=theta, size=m)
samples = np.round(samples).astype(int).reshape((time_horizon, M))
return pd.DataFrame(samples)
def get_lognormal_demand(time_horizon, mean, std_dev, rho, M, seed=None):
if seed is not None:
np.random.seed(seed)
normal_mean = np.log(mean**2 / np.sqrt(std_dev**2 + mean**2))
normal_std_dev = np.sqrt(np.log(1 + (std_dev**2 / mean**2)))
mean_vector = np.full((time_horizon,), normal_mean)
covariance_matrix = np.diag(np.full((time_horizon,), normal_std_dev**2))
cov_value = rho * normal_std_dev**2
for j in range(time_horizon - 1):
covariance_matrix[j, j+1] = covariance_matrix[j+1, j] = cov_value
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", message="covariance is not symmetric positive-semidefinite")
samples = np.random.multivariate_normal(mean_vector, covariance_matrix, M)
samples = np.round(np.exp(samples)).astype(int).T
return pd.DataFrame(samples)
def get_weibull_demand(time_horizon, mean, std_dev, M, seed=None):
if seed is not None:
np.random.seed(seed)
def weibull_params(mean_, std_):
def equations(vars_):
k_, lam_ = vars_
mean_eq = lam_ * sp_gamma(1 + 1/k_) - mean_
std_eq = lam_ * np.sqrt(sp_gamma(1 + 2/k_) - sp_gamma(1 + 1/k_)**2) - std_
return [mean_eq, std_eq]
return fsolve(equations, (0.5, mean_))
k, lam = weibull_params(mean, std_dev)
samples = np.random.weibull(k, size=(time_horizon, M)) * lam
samples = np.round(samples).astype(int)
return pd.DataFrame(samples)
def get_mixture_demand(distribution_list, time_horizon, M, seed=None, M_max=20000):
if seed is not None:
np.random.seed(seed)
all_samples = []
all_labels = []
for i, dist_info in enumerate(distribution_list):
dist_type = dist_info['type'].lower()
weight = dist_info['weight']
params = dist_info['params']
sample_size_max = int(round(weight * M_max))
local_seed = (seed or 0) + i * 99991
if dist_type == 'gaussian':
samples = get_gaussian_demand(time_horizon, params['mean'], params['std_dev'], params.get('rho', 0), sample_size_max, local_seed)
elif dist_type == 'gamma':
samples = get_gamma_demand(time_horizon, params['mean'], params['std_dev'], sample_size_max, local_seed)
elif dist_type == 'lognormal':
samples = get_lognormal_demand(time_horizon, params['mean'], params['std_dev'], params.get('rho', 0), sample_size_max, local_seed)
elif dist_type == 'weibull':
samples = get_weibull_demand(time_horizon, params['mean'], params['std_dev'], sample_size_max, local_seed)
else:
raise ValueError(f"Unsupported distribution type: {dist_type}")
sample_size = int(round(weight * M))
samples = samples.iloc[:, :sample_size]
all_samples.append(samples)
all_labels.extend([i]*sample_size)
combined = pd.concat(all_samples, axis=1).T
combined['label'] = all_labels
shuffled = combined.sample(frac=1, random_state=seed).reset_index(drop=True).iloc[:M, :]
labels = shuffled['label']
samples_df = shuffled.drop(columns='label').T
samples_df.columns = range(samples_df.shape[1])
return samples_df, labels
# ============================ Model class (McC only) ============================
class Models:
def __init__(self, h, b, I_0, B_0, R, input_parameters_file, dist, input_demand, N):
data_price = pd.read_excel(input_parameters_file, sheet_name='price')
data_supplier = pd.read_excel(input_parameters_file, sheet_name='supplier')
data_capacity = pd.read_excel(input_parameters_file, sheet_name='capacity')
self.h = h
self.b = b
self.I_0 = I_0
self.B_0 = B_0
self.N = N
self.Nlist = list(range(N))
self.R = R
self.dist = dist
self.demand = input_demand # dict: state -> DataFrame (time x Nk[state])
self.price_df = data_price
self.time = range(next(iter(input_demand.values())).shape[0]) # rows of any state's DF
self.supplier, self.order_cost, self.lead_time, self.quality_level = self.get_suppliers(data_supplier)
self.prices, self.capacities = self.get_time_suppliers(data_price, data_capacity)
self.t_supplier = [(t, s) for t in self.time for s in self.supplier]
self.t_supplier_n = [(t, s, n) for t in self.time for s in self.supplier for n in self.Nlist]
@staticmethod
def get_structure(*args):
if len(args) == 2:
return [(a, b) for a in args[0] for b in args[1]]
if len(args) == 3:
return [(a, b, c) for a in args[0] for b in args[1] for c in args[2]]
if len(args) == 4:
return [(a, b, c, d) for a in args[0] for b in args[1] for c in args[2] for d in args[3]]
raise ValueError("get_structure supports up to 4 iterable args")
@staticmethod
def _multidict_like(multi_temp):
"""
Mimic gurobipy.multidict: input {key: [v1, v2, v3]}
return (keys_list, dict1, dict2, dict3)
"""
keys = list(multi_temp.keys())
d1, d2, d3 = {}, {}, {}
for k, vals in multi_temp.items():
d1[k], d2[k], d3[k] = vals
return keys, d1, d2, d3
def get_suppliers(self, data_supplier):
supplier = data_supplier['supplier'].values
order_cost = data_supplier['order_cost'].values
lead_time = data_supplier['lead_time'].values
quality_level = data_supplier['quality_level'].values
multi_temp = {}
for i in range(len(supplier)):
multi_temp[supplier[i]] = [float(order_cost[i]), float(lead_time[i]), float(quality_level[i])]
return self._multidict_like(multi_temp)
def get_time_suppliers(self, data_price, data_capacity):
price_sn, capacity_sn = [0], [0]
for i in range(1, len(self.supplier)+1):
price_sn.append(data_price['s'+str(i)].values)
capacity_sn.append(data_capacity['s'+str(i)].values)
prices = {}
capacities = {}
for t in self.time:
for s in self.supplier:
n = int(s[1:])
prices[(t, s)] = float(price_sn[n][t])
capacities[(t, s)] = float(capacity_sn[n][t])
return prices, capacities
# ================= McC MILP in CVXPY (exact translation of your Gurobi model) =================
def optimize_McC_rs(self, K, epsilon, r, Nk, solver_preference=None, verbose=False):
"""
CVXPY MILP version of your McCormick (McC) DRO model.
Args:
K: number of regimes
epsilon: dict {state -> epsilon_k}
r: array-like of length K (weights/probabilities)
Nk: array-like of length K (sample counts for each regime)
Returns:
(objective_value, df_solution)
"""
T_idx = list(self.time)
S = list(self.supplier)
T = T_idx[-1]
P_I = self.I_0 - self.B_0
b = self.b
h = self.h
Mbig = 999_999.0
# demand bounds per (k,n)
dU, dL = {}, {}
for k in range(K):
dU[k], dL[k] = {}, {}
for n in range(Nk[k]):
col = self.demand[k].iloc[:, n]
dU[k][n] = float(col.max())
dL[k][n] = float(col.min())
# decision variables
Q = {(t, s): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"order_quantity[{t},{s}]") for t in T_idx for s in S}
theta = {(t, s): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"arrive_quantity[{t},{s}]") for t in T_idx for s in S}
Y = {(t, s): cp.Variable(boolean=True, name=f"if_make_order_arrive[{t},{s}]") for t in T_idx for s in S}
alpha = {(k, n): cp.Variable(name=f"alpha[{k},{n}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k])}
beta = {k: cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"beta[{k}]") for k in range(K)}
delta = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"delta[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
sigma = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"sigma[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
gamma = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"gamma[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
tau = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"tau[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
phi = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"phi[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
xi = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"xi[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
zeta = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"zeta[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
varphi= {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"varphi[{k},{n},{t}]")for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
eta = {(k,n,t): cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"eta[{k},{n},{t}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k]) for t in T_idx}
ta = {(k,n) : cp.Variable(nonneg=True, name=f"ta[{k},{n}]") for k in range(K) for n in range(Nk[k])}
cons = []
# arrival linkage: theta[tp,s] = sum_t Q[t,s] where t + L_s == tp
for s in S:
Lt = int(round(self.lead_time[s]))
for tp in T_idx:
cons.append(theta[tp, s] == cp.sum([Q[t, s] for t in T_idx if t + Lt == tp]))
# big-M and capacity
for t in T_idx:
for s in S:
cons += [
Q[t, s] <= Mbig * Y[t, s],
Q[t, s] <= self.capacities[(t, s)],
Y[t, s] >= 0,
Y[t, s] <= 1
]
# McC DRO constraints
for k in range(K):
for n in range(Nk[k]):
cons.append(ta[k, n] <= beta[k])
for n in range(Nk[k]):
for t in T_idx:
cons.append(delta[k, n, t] + sigma[k, n, t] - ta[k, n] <= 0)
for n in range(Nk[k]):
# master inequality bounding alpha[k,n]
terms = []
terms.append((b + h) * cp.sum(cp.hstack([tau[k, n, t] for t in T_idx if t < T])))
terms.append((T + 1) * h * P_I)
for t in T_idx:
dnt = float(self.demand[k].iloc[t, n])
terms.append((delta[k, n, t] - sigma[k, n, t]) * dnt)
terms.append((T - t + 1) * h * cp.sum(cp.hstack([theta[t, s] for s in S])))
terms.append(xi[k, n, t] * (T - t + 1) * (b + h) * dU[k][n])
terms.append(- zeta[k, n, t]* (T - t + 1) * (b + h) * dL[k][n])
terms.append(eta[k, n, t] * (T - t + 1) * (b + h))
cons.append(cp.sum(cp.hstack(terms)) <= alpha[k, n])
for t in T_idx:
cons.append(1 + phi[k, n, t] + xi[k, n, t] - zeta[k, n, t] - varphi[k, n, t] <= 0)
for t in T_idx:
cons.append(
sigma[k, n, t] - delta[k, n, t]
+ (zeta[k, n, t] - xi[k, n, t]) * (T - t + 1) * (h + b)
- (T - t + 1) * h
<= 0
)
for t in T_idx:
sum_theta_t = cp.sum(cp.hstack([theta[t, s] for s in S]))
if t == 0:
cons.append(
gamma[k, n, t] - tau[k, n, t]
- phi[k, n, t] * dL[k][n] - xi[k, n, t] * dU[k][n]
+ zeta[k, n, t] * dL[k][n] + varphi[k, n, t] * dU[k][n]
- eta[k, n, t] - sum_theta_t - P_I
<= 0
)
elif t == T:
cons.append(
tau[k, n, t - 1] - gamma[k, n, t - 1]
- phi[k, n, t] * dL[k][n] - xi[k, n, t] * dU[k][n]
+ zeta[k, n, t] * dL[k][n] + varphi[k, n, t] * dU[k][n]
- eta[k, n, t] - sum_theta_t
<= 0
)
else:
cons.append(
gamma[k, n, t] - tau[k, n, t] + tau[k, n, t - 1] - gamma[k, n, t - 1]
- phi[k, n, t] * dL[k][n] - xi[k, n, t] * dU[k][n]
+ zeta[k, n, t] * dL[k][n] + varphi[k, n, t] * dU[k][n]
- eta[k, n, t] - sum_theta_t
<= 0
)
# objective
fixed_order = cp.sum([ self.order_cost[s] * Y[t, s] for t in T_idx for s in S ])
purchase = cp.sum([ self.prices[(t, s)] * Q[t, s] for t in T_idx for s in S ])
dro_term = cp.sum([ (r[k] * cp.sum(cp.hstack([alpha[k, n] for n in range(Nk[k])])) / Nk[k]
+ r[k] * beta[k] * epsilon[k]) for k in range(K) ])
obj = fixed_order + purchase + dro_term
prob = cp.Problem(cp.Minimize(obj), cons)
# solver order (MIP-capable)
order = []
if solver_preference is not None:
order.append(solver_preference)
order += [cp.SCIPY, cp.GUROBI, cp.CBC, cp.GLPK_MI, cp.SCIP, cp.ECOS_BB]
status = None
for s in order:
if s not in cp.installed_solvers():
continue
try:
prob.solve(solver=s, verbose=verbose)
status = prob.status
if status in ("optimal", "optimal_inaccurate"):
break
except Exception:
continue
if status not in ("optimal", "optimal_inaccurate"):
raise RuntimeError(f"CVXPY failed; last status: {status}; installed={cp.installed_solvers()}")
# export solution in a simple DataFrame
rows = []
for (t, s), v in Q.items():
rows.append({"variable_name": f"order_quantity[{t},{s}]", "value": float(v.value)})
for (t, s), v in theta.items():
rows.append({"variable_name": f"arrive_quantity[{t},{s}]", "value": float(v.value)})
for (t, s), v in Y.items():
rows.append({"variable_name": f"if_make_order_arrive[{t},{s}]", "value": float(v.value)})
df_result = pd.DataFrame(rows)
return float(prob.value), df_result
# ============================ experiment driver (McC only) ============================
if __name__ == "__main__":
input_parameters_file = 'input_parameters.xlsx'
h = 5
b = 20
I_0 = 1800
B_0 = 0
R = 0
k_fold = 5
oos_size = 5000
planning_horizon = 8
rho = 0
seed = 25
random_state = seed
input_sample_no = [10, 20, 40] # adjust as you like
oos_analys = OOS_analys(h, b, I_0, B_0, input_parameters_file)
all_res = {}
all_df = []
num_regime = 2
# generate input samples (mixture)
Demand_samples, Label_samples = get_mixture_demand(
distribution_list=[
{'type': 'gaussian', 'weight': 0.5, 'params': {'mean': 1800, 'std_dev': 500, 'rho': 0}},
{'type': 'gamma', 'weight': 0.5, 'params': {'mean': 2000, 'std_dev': 500}}
],
time_horizon=planning_horizon, M=200, seed=seed
)
for input_dist in ['mix']:
all_res['input_dist'] = input_dist
for out_sample_dist in ['mix']:
for N in input_sample_no:
start = time.time()
all_res['N'] = N
input_demand = Demand_samples.iloc[:, :N]
labels = Label_samples[:N]
n_components = num_regime
state_samples_dict = {i: [] for i in range(n_components)}
data = np.array(input_demand).T
if num_regime > 1:
Labels = labels.values.reshape(len(labels), 1)
model, _, _, _, num = train_hmm_with_sorted_states(Labels, n_components, random_state, 'full', 100)
print(num)
for i, state in enumerate(labels):
state_samples_dict[state].append(data[i])
state_samples_df = {}
state_counts = []
for state, samples in state_samples_dict.items():
samples_array = np.array(samples).T if len(samples) > 0 else np.zeros((planning_horizon, 0))
state_samples_df[state] = pd.DataFrame(samples_array, columns=[f"{j}" for j in range(samples_array.shape[1])])
state_counts.append(state_samples_df[state].shape[1])
print(f'state_counts is {state_counts}')
for state, df in state_samples_df.items():
df.to_csv(f"state_{state}_samples.csv", index=False)
print(f"sample with state {state} saved: state_{state}_samples.csv")
else:
state_samples_df = {0: pd.DataFrame(data.T)}
state_counts = [N]
# --------- Cross-validate epsilon for McC only ----------
cross_res = {'McC_rs': {}}
min_epsilons = [ {0: 0, 1: 0} for _ in range(k_fold-1) ] # init
for k in range(1, k_fold):
num_fold = N // k_fold
train_size = N - num_fold
all_cols = list(range(input_demand.shape[1]))
selected_cols = [i for i in all_cols if i < k*num_fold or i >= (k+1)*num_fold]
train_demand = input_demand.iloc[:, selected_cols]
train_demand.columns = range(train_demand.shape[1])
CV_input_demand = input_demand.iloc[:, k*num_fold:(k+1)*num_fold]
CV_input_demand.columns = range(num_fold)
train_labels = labels[selected_cols].values.reshape(-1, 1)
model_cv, cv_states, cv_transmat, _, train_num = train_hmm_with_sorted_states(
train_labels, n_components, random_state, 'full', 100
)
# split train samples by latest known state label for indexing
train_input_demand = {}
uniques = pd.unique(labels)
for l in uniques:
mask = (train_labels.flatten() == l)
train_input_demand[int(l)] = train_demand.loc[:, mask]
train_input_demand[int(l)].columns = range(train_input_demand[int(l)].shape[1])
# set solver
solve = Models(h, b, I_0, B_0, R, input_parameters_file, input_dist, train_input_demand, train_size)
# we use the row of transition matrix corresponding to the last observed label in the train split
idx_row = int(labels[k*num_fold-1]) if k*num_fold-1 >= 0 else 0
tran_matrix = model_cv.transmat_[idx_row]
min_cost = 1e18
list_epsilon = [0, 30, 60] # search grid
combos = [ {0: e0, 1: e1} for (e0, e1) in product(list_epsilon, list_epsilon) ]
for eps in combos:
fold_costs = []
for j in range(num_fold):
r_vec = model_cv.transmat_[ int(labels[min(N-1, k*num_fold + j - 1)]) ] if (k*num_fold + j - 1) >= 0 else tran_matrix
# Nk per state for train
Nk_train = [train_input_demand.get(st, pd.DataFrame()).shape[1] for st in range(n_components)]
# guard zero-sample state
Nk_sanitized = [max(1, x) for x in Nk_train]
obj, solution = solve.optimize_McC_rs(n_components, eps, r_vec, Nk_sanitized,
solver_preference=None, verbose=False)
# OOS on validation column j
cost, _ = oos_analys.cal_out_of_sample(solution, CV_input_demand[j])
fold_costs.append(cost.total_cost.mean())
avg_cost = float(np.mean(fold_costs))
if avg_cost < min_cost:
min_cost = avg_cost
min_epsilons[k-1] = eps
# average best eps per state
for state in state_samples_df.keys():
cross_res['McC_rs'][state] = np.mean([min_epsilons[i][state] for i in range(k_fold-1)])
# --------- Final solve on full (by regime) ----------
input_demand_regime = {state: pd.read_csv(f'state_{state}_samples.csv') for state in state_samples_df.keys()}
state_frequencies = model.transmat_[labels[len(labels)-1:]][0] # last row (prob of next state)
print("Chosen eps:", cross_res['McC_rs'], "state_frequencies:", state_frequencies, "state_counts:", state_counts)
solve_full = Models(h, b, I_0, B_0, R, input_parameters_file, input_dist, input_demand_regime, N)
eps_final = cross_res['McC_rs']
# sanitize Nk for final (avoid zero)
Nk_final = [max(1, input_demand_regime.get(k, pd.DataFrame()).shape[1]) for k in range(n_components)]
obj, solution = solve_full.optimize_McC_rs(num_regime, eps_final, state_frequencies, Nk_final,
solver_preference=None, verbose=False)
# --------- Evaluate out-of-sample for different mixture weights ----------
for weight in [0.3, 0.5, 0.7]:
oos_demands_mix, labels_oos = get_mixture_demand(
distribution_list=[
{'type': 'gaussian', 'weight': weight, 'params': {'mean': 1800, 'std_dev': 500, 'rho': 0}},
{'type': 'gamma', 'weight': 1-weight, 'params': {'mean': 2000, 'std_dev': 500}}
],
time_horizon=planning_horizon, M=oos_size, seed=25
)
oos_demands = oos_demands_mix
oos_cost, oos_details = oos_analys.cal_out_of_sample(solution, oos_demands)
print(f'[McC] N={N}, OoS weight={weight}: mean={oos_cost.total_cost.mean():.3f}')
end = time.time()
all_res['model_name'] = 'McC_rs'
all_res['oos_weight'] = weight
all_res['obj'] = obj
all_res['epsilon'] = eps_final
all_res['oos_mean'] = oos_cost.total_cost.mean()
all_res['order'] = oos_cost.fixed_order_cost.mean()
all_res['purchase'] = oos_cost.purchase_cost.mean()
all_res['oos_inv'] = oos_cost.inv_cost.mean()
all_res['oos_backlog'] = oos_cost.backlog_cost.mean()
all_res['oos_std'] = oos_cost.total_cost.std()
all_res['seed'] = seed
all_res['time_min'] = (end - start) / 60
all_df.append(pd.DataFrame.from_dict(all_res, orient='index'))
# Save summary
if all_df:
res_df = pd.concat(all_df, axis=1).T
res_df.to_excel('McC_only_results.xlsx', index=False)
pd.options.display.float_format = '{:.2f}'.format
print(res_df)
else:
print("No results to save.")