feat(calibration): implicit-confirmation overrides for non-AI rules on an owner terminal close

[JSONbored]

Summary

The confirmation-asymmetry fix from adversarial-audit epic #8757. Only the two AI-judgment codes ever received "confirmed" HumanOverrideEvents (#8123); every other rule accumulated reversals exclusively, structurally biasing computeRulePrecision toward 0 for them as data grew — silently corrupting the backtest_regression gate, the knob-loosening ladders, and the public precision surface regardless of the rules' real accuracy.

Changes

• src/review/outcomes-wire.ts — new recordImplicitTerminalConfirmations, called from the same owner-close-without-merge branch calibration: record a 'confirmed' HumanOverrideEvent when an owner closes an aiReviewLowConfidenceHold PR #8123 already uses (the one human disposition consistent with an adverse finding's verdict). For every non-AI, non-score rule that fired against the target (30-day lookback), records a "confirmed" override tagged metadata.basis = "implicit_terminal_disposition" so downstream consumers can weight or exclude implicit evidence separately from calibration: record a 'confirmed' HumanOverrideEvent when an owner closes an aiReviewLowConfidenceHold PR #8123's explicit kind.
• Idempotent by construction: any existing override (either verdict) for the (ruleId, target) pair suppresses the write — a pair stays single-verdict, so a reopen-recorded reversal is never followed by a contradicting implicit confirmation, and a second owner close records nothing new.
• Excluded by design (documented at the function): the AI codes (their explicit writer is byte-identical), the score signals (slop_gate_score/quality_gate_score fire on PASS outcomes too, so close-confirmation is incoherent for them — their ground truth is threshold replays), and merge-despite-advisory-finding (weak evidence against a finding, a reversal-shaped signal deserving its own design).
• src/rules/advisory.ts drift fix — backtest_regression (Scaffold the advisory backtest CI workflow + threshold-only comparison, and persist each run's result #8138) was added to the gate switch but never to CONFIGURED_GATE_BLOCKER_SIGNAL_CODES, so its reversals silently never recorded — exactly the drift the list's own doc comment promises against. Added, with the drift called out inline.

Test plan

• npm run typecheck — clean
• outcomes-wire.test.ts: 99/99, including 9 new tests — basis-tagged confirmation, linked_issue_scope_mismatch's first-ever confirmed side, both idempotence directions, score-code exclusion, AI-writer isolation (exactly one confirmation, no basis tag), the backtest_regression drift fix, contributor-close guard, and the store-construction-throw catch path
• 222 tests green across the recorder/rules adjacent suites
• Changed line ranges: 0 uncovered statements, 0 uncovered branches (istanbul JSON, exact diff hunks)

Independent of #8784 (different regions of advisory.ts; the new tests seed events directly) — the two merge in either order.

Closes #8761

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Status	Name	Latest Commit	Preview URL	Updated (UTC)
✅ Deployment successful! View logs	loopover-ui	e2f12d2	Commit Preview URL Branch Preview URL	Jul 26 2026, 05:45 AM

[superagent-security]

Superagent didn't find any vulnerabilities or security issues in this PR.

[github-actions]

Logic backtest

Replayed 0 historical case(s) for linked_issue_scope_mismatch through the base (476b98d) and head (e2f12d2) versions of its detection logic (corpus checksum 4f53cda18c2b).

Backtest comparison: linked_issue_scope_mismatch

Verdict: unchanged — no comparable axis moved.

Advisory only — this check never blocks merge (#8105).

[codecov]

❌ 3 Tests Failed:

Tests completed	Failed	Passed	Skipped
21204	3	21201	21

View the top 3 failed test(s) by shortest run time

test/unit/check-engine-parity-script.test.ts > check-engine-parity script > runEngineParityMain returns 0 for the real monorepo workspace

Stack Traces | 0.038s run time

AssertionError: expected 1 to be +0 // Object.is equality

- Expected
+ Received

- 0
+ 1

 ❯ test/unit/check-engine-parity-script.test.ts:798:48

test/unit/check-engine-parity-script.test.ts > check-engine-parity script > engine version skew > uses default version readers against the real monorepo workspace

Stack Traces | 0.0583s run time

AssertionError: expected [ Array(1) ] to deeply equal []

- Expected
+ Received

- []
+ [
+   "Gate-decision logic change in src/rules/advisory.ts requires either:
+   • a matching edit to the other twin (.../src/advisory/gate-advisory.ts), or
+   • a version bump in packages/loopover-engine/package.json (currently 3.14.1 vs base 3.14.1).",
+ ]

 ❯ test/unit/check-engine-parity-script.test.ts:785:31

test/unit/check-engine-parity-script.test.ts > check-engine-parity script > prints a clean summary and exits 0 for the real repo state when run as a subprocess

Stack Traces | 0.84s run time

Error: Command failed: .../loopover/node_modules/.bin/tsx scripts/check-engine-parity.ts
Engine-parity check found 1 issue(s):
Gate-decision logic change in src/rules/advisory.ts requires either:
  • a matching edit to the other twin (.../src/advisory/gate-advisory.ts), or
  • a version bump in packages/loopover-engine/package.json (currently 3.14.1 vs base 3.14.1).

 ❯ test/unit/check-engine-parity-script.test.ts:803:20

⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯
Serialized Error: { status: 1, signal: null, output: [ null, '', 'Engine-parity check found 1 issue(s):\nGate-decision logic change in src/rules/advisory.ts requires either:\n  • a matching edit to the other twin (.../src/advisory/gate-advisory.ts), or\n  • a version bump in packages/loopover-engine/package.json (currently 3.14.1 vs base 3.14.1).\n' ], pid: 7190, stdout: '', stderr: 'Engine-parity check found 1 issue(s):\nGate-decision logic change in src/rules/advisory.ts requires either:\n  • a matching edit to the other twin (.../src/advisory/gate-advisory.ts), or\n  • a version bump in packages/loopover-engine/package.json (currently 3.14.1 vs base 3.14.1).\n' }

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