ORMR

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  オルムル ~ Funding Rate Serpent
  ─────────────────────────────
  By @DraculaPresley

ORMR

Automated funding rate trading on Boros powered by Synth volatility intelligence.

ORMR (Old Norse for serpent) is a Python trading bot that captures yield from interest rate swaps on the Boros protocol. It uses Synth's AI-driven volatility forecasts, price predictions, and liquidation cascade detection to time entries, manage risk, and optimize hold duration across multiple assets.

How It Works

ORMR trades Yield Units (YU) on Boros — on-chain interest rate swaps where you exchange a fixed APR for a floating funding rate (or vice versa). The bot identifies moments when the rate differential creates profitable carry opportunities, enters positions through an on-chain SDK bridge, and manages them through a multi-layered risk system.

The Synth Edge

Raw funding rate data is noisy and reactive. ORMR integrates three Synth data streams to see around corners:

Synth Signal	What It Tells Us	How ORMR Uses It
Volatility Forecast	24h predicted vs realized vol ratio	Detects vol regime shifts — expansion means funding spikes ahead, contraction means carry conditions
Price Predictions	Percentile fan (p5 through p95) at 5-min resolution	Direction bias gates entries, percentile spread gauges conviction, terminal forecast filters opposing trades
Liquidation Cascades	Cluster probability at price thresholds	Predicts funding rate dislocations from forced liquidations — high-conviction spike events

These signals feed into a 4-case decision engine:

  Synth Vol Expanding (>1.3x)  -->  Funding spike expected   -->  Position for rate rise
  Synth Vol Contracting (<0.8x) -->  Rates compressing        -->  Position for rate fall
  Liquidation Cascade (>65%)    -->  Extreme dislocation       -->  Directional spike trade
  Stable Vol                    -->  Carry conditions          -->  Harvest rate differential

Direction bias acts as a hard gate — if Synth's price prediction opposes the carry direction, the trade is blocked entirely, not just penalized.

Architecture

watchdog.py                 Process supervisor — auto-restart on crash
  +-- run_bot.py            Main loop (5-min cycles, 24/7)
        |
        +-- src/strategies/
        |     vol_regime_trader.py     Strategy engine — scanning, entry, exit, flip
        |
        +-- src/core/
        |     signal_generator.py      Synth-powered 4-case signal logic
        |     risk_manager.py          Position sizing, 10 stop types, cooldowns
        |     telegram_reporter.py     Periodic portfolio + trade reports
        |     logger.py                Session CSV/JSON logging
        |
        +-- src/api/
        |     synth_client_lite.py     Synth API — vol, predictions, liquidations
        |     hl_websocket.py          Hyperliquid WebSocket — live funding + prices
        |     funding_rate_fetcher.py  Multi-exchange funding rate aggregation
        |     boros_sdk_wrapper.py     HTTP bridge to SDK + Boros REST reads
        |
        +-- src/config/
              settings.py              All tunable parameters

The SDK bridge (sdk/src/server.ts) is a lightweight Express server wrapping @pendle/sdk-boros for on-chain order execution on Arbitrum.

Strategies

Carry Trade (Primary)

Harvest the spread between Boros fixed APR and Hyperliquid floating funding rate. SHORT YU = receive fixed, pay floating. Profitable when floating stays below fixed.

Entry: Rate edge exceeds threshold + cost gates + Synth direction confirms
Hold: 24-48h target, minimum hold floor prevents premature exits
Exit: Time stop, carry take-profit, or absolute loss stop

Vol Regime Flip

When Synth forecasts volatility expansion, funding rates are likely to spike. Position ahead of the move.

Entry: Synth vol_ratio > 1.3x with hysteresis to prevent flicker
Direction: LONG YU during expansion (pay fixed, receive spiking float)

Liquidation Catalyst

Synth detects liquidation cascade clusters near current price. Forced liquidations create predictable funding rate dislocations.

Entry: Cascade probability > 65% within proximity threshold
Direction: Based on which side faces liquidation pressure
Hold: Short duration (6-12h) — capture the spike, exit before normalization

Risk Management

Control	Description
Absolute loss stop	8% of collateral — always active, no minimum hold
Time stop	Hard exit after configurable hours
Carry take-profit	Exit at Nx daily carry (configurable multiplier)
Funding reversal	Exit if underlying rate reverses significantly against entry
Edge decay	Exit if rate advantage drops below threshold
Emergency drawback	Exit if unrealized P&L drops 60%+ from peak
Daily circuit breaker	No new trades if daily loss exceeds limit
Per-asset cooldowns	Prevent rapid re-entry after stops
Velocity interrupt	HL WebSocket detects >1% price move in 2 min — triggers early cycle
Oracle wind-down	Closes positions if Synth/HL data goes stale for >2h

Setup

Prerequisites

Python 3.10+
Node.js 18+ (for SDK bridge)
Arbitrum wallet with USDT deposited on Boros
Synth API key

1. Clone & Install

git clone https://github.com/PotluckProtocol/ORMR_BOROS_PREDICTIVE_BOT.git
cd ORMR_BOROS_PREDICTIVE_BOT

# Python dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

# SDK bridge
cd sdk && npm install && npm run build && cd ..

2. Configure

cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env with your keys

Variable	Required	Description
`SYNTH_API_KEY`	Yes	Synth API key
`WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY`	Yes	Arbitrum wallet private key (0x...)
`ARBITRUM_RPC_URL`	Yes	Arbitrum RPC endpoint
`TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN`	Recommended	Telegram bot for notifications
`TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID`	Recommended	Your Telegram chat ID
`INITIAL_CAPITAL`	No	Starting capital in USD (default: 1000)
`DRY_RUN`	No	`true` for paper trading (default: `false`)

3. Start the SDK Bridge

cd sdk && npm start
# Runs on localhost:3001 — handles on-chain Boros transactions

4. Run

# Paper trading (no real orders)
DRY_RUN=true python run_bot.py

# Live trading
python run_bot.py

# With watchdog (auto-restart on crash)
python watchdog.py

Deploy to Railway

# Railway auto-detects the Dockerfile
# Set environment variables in the Railway dashboard
# The watchdog process starts automatically

Monitoring

Telegram — Portfolio snapshots every 30 minutes, trade events, health alerts
CSV Logs — Signals, trades, funding rates, portfolio state per session in data/boros_logs/
Status Snapshot — data/status_snapshot.json with live positions, P&L, bridge health, Synth budget

Markets

Asset	Boros Market	HL Coin	Side
BTC	YU-BTC-HL	BTC	SHORT/LONG
XAU	YU-XAU-HL	PAXG	SHORT/LONG

Additional markets (ETH, SOL, etc.) can be enabled in src/config/settings.py.

Project Structure

.
+-- run_bot.py              Main entry point
+-- watchdog.py             Process supervisor
+-- requirements.txt        Python dependencies
+-- .env.example            Environment template
+-- Dockerfile              Container build
+-- sdk/
|   +-- src/server.ts       Boros SDK bridge (TypeScript)
|   +-- package.json        Node dependencies
+-- src/
|   +-- api/                External data & execution clients
|   +-- config/             Settings & parameters
|   +-- core/               Signal generation, risk, logging
|   +-- strategies/         Trading strategy implementations
+-- data/                   Runtime logs & state (gitignored)

Configuration Reference

All parameters live in src/config/settings.py. Here are the key tunables:

Entry Thresholds

Parameter	Default	Description
`BOROS_MIN_EDGE_BPS`	100	Minimum rate edge (bps) to consider any trade
`LONG_YU_MIN_EDGE_BPS`	600	Higher bar for directional LONG YU entries (noisier)
`CARRY_ENTRY_THRESHOLD_BPS`	700	BTC carry entry — fixed vs floating spread required
`CARRY_ENTRY_THRESHOLD_BPS_XAU`	800	XAU carry entry — wider due to thinner order book
`BOROS_MAX_ENTRY_SPREAD_BPS`	50	Skip market if bid/ask spread exceeds this
`VOL_EXPANSION_THRESHOLD`	1.3	Synth forecast/realized ratio to trigger vol flip
`LIQUIDATION_PROB_THRESHOLD`	0.65	Cascade probability to trigger liq catalyst

Position Sizing

Parameter	Default	Description
`BOROS_MAX_POSITION_USD`	500	Hard cap per position (USD)
`BOROS_DEFAULT_LEVERAGE`	2	Default leverage (overridden per-asset)
`CARRY_POSITION_SIZE_PCT`	0.33	% of capital per carry trade
`MAX_TOTAL_EXPOSURE_PCT`	1.32	Max total exposure across all positions
`DYNAMIC_SIZING_ENABLED`	True	Scale position size with account growth

Risk / Stop Losses

Parameter	Default	Description
`MAX_UNREALIZED_LOSS_PCT`	8.0	Hard stop — close if loss exceeds 8% of collateral
`STOP_LOSS_TIME_HOURS`	48	Max hold time before forced exit
`DAILY_MAX_LOSS_PCT`	5.0	Circuit breaker — no new trades after this daily loss
`TRAILING_TP_DRAWBACK_PCT`	20.0	Close if P&L drops 20% from peak
`EMERGENCY_PNL_DRAWBACK_PCT`	60.0	Emergency exit if P&L drops 60% from peak
`STOP_LOSS_EDGE_DECAY_BPS`	50	Close carry if edge drops below 50bps
`FUNDING_REVERSAL_THRESHOLD`	0.5	Close if funding reverses 50% against entry

Hold Time Gates

Parameter	Default	Description
`BOROS_MIN_HOLD_HOURS_BEFORE_TP`	2.0	No TP/trailing exit before 2h (recover opening fee)
`MIN_HOLD_HOURS_BEFORE_RATE_STOP`	5.0	No rate-based stop before 5h (funding noise filter)
`MIN_HOLD_HOURS_BEFORE_EDGE_DECAY`	3.0	No edge-decay stop before 3h
`FLIP_GRACE_PERIOD_HOURS`	6.0	Wide stop allowance for flip/liq trades during grace

Cooldowns

Parameter	Default	Description
`EDGE_DECAY_COOLDOWN_HOURS`	2.0	Block re-entry after edge-decay stop
`FUNDING_STOP_COOLDOWN_HOURS`	1.5	Block re-entry after funding stop
`REENTRY_COOLDOWN_AFTER_STOP_HOURS`	1.0	Block re-entry after any hard stop
`FLIP_COOLDOWN_HOURS`	4.0	Minimum time between position flips
`PRED_STOP_COOLDOWN_HOURS`	2.0	Block re-entry after prediction stop

Synth API Budget

Parameter	Default	Description
`SYNTH_DAILY_CALL_LIMIT`	750	Max Synth API calls per day
`SYNTH_SCANNING_REFRESH_SEC`	3600	Vol/prediction refresh while scanning (1h)
`SYNTH_LIQ_ACTIVE_REFRESH_SEC`	300	Liquidation refresh with active position (5min)
`SYNTH_CACHE_TTL_STABLE_HOURS`	1.0	Cache TTL for 24h vol forecast
`SYNTH_CACHE_TTL_HIGH_HOURS`	0.5	Cache TTL for 1h vol forecast

Failsafes

Parameter	Default	Description
`ORACLE_MAX_FAILURES`	3	Consecutive oracle failures before wind-down
`SDK_MAX_FAILURES`	3	Consecutive SDK failures before pausing opens
`WIND_DOWN_FORCE_CLOSE_HOURS`	2.0	Force-close positions after oracle outage (hours)
`WS_VELOCITY_EXIT_PCT_CARRY`	1.5	Close carry on 1.5% adverse price move in 2min
`WS_VELOCITY_EXIT_PCT_DIRECTIONAL`	2.5	Close flip/liq on 2.5% adverse move

Execution

Parameter	Default	Description
`DRY_RUN`	True	Paper trading mode — set `false` for live
`TRADABLE_ASSETS`	`["BTC", "XAU"]`	Active markets
`PREFERRED_VENUES`	`["Hyperliquid"]`	Permitted Boros settlement venues
`TELEGRAM_NOTIFICATIONS`	True	Enable Telegram alerts
`TELEGRAM_INTERVAL_MINUTES`	30	Portfolio snapshot frequency

Disclaimer

This software is provided as-is for educational and research purposes. Trading cryptocurrency derivatives involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use at your own risk.

Built with Synth intelligence and Pendle Boros infrastructure.

Name		Name	Last commit message	Last commit date
Latest commit History 2 Commits
data		data
sdk		sdk
src		src
.env.example		.env.example
.gitignore		.gitignore
Dockerfile		Dockerfile
Procfile		Procfile
README.md		README.md
multi_asset_backtest.py		multi_asset_backtest.py
notify_new_assets.py		notify_new_assets.py
paper_trade.py		paper_trade.py
railway.json		railway.json
requirements.txt		requirements.txt
run_boros_trader.py		run_boros_trader.py
run_bot.py		run_bot.py
send_status.py		send_status.py
start.sh		start.sh
test_telegram.py		test_telegram.py
video_script_ormr_overview.md		video_script_ormr_overview.md
watchdog.py		watchdog.py

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ORMR

How It Works

The Synth Edge

Architecture

Strategies

Carry Trade (Primary)

Vol Regime Flip

Liquidation Catalyst

Risk Management

Setup

Prerequisites

1. Clone & Install

2. Configure

3. Start the SDK Bridge

4. Run

Deploy to Railway

Monitoring

Markets

Project Structure

Configuration Reference

Entry Thresholds

Position Sizing

Risk / Stop Losses

Hold Time Gates

Cooldowns

Synth API Budget

Failsafes

Execution

Disclaimer

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