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India AQI Analysis

Overview

This project was carried out at the Defence Research and Development Establishment, DRDO to analyze the Air Quality Index (AQI) across India. The study focused on identifying spatial and temporal pollution patterns, assessing pollutant contributions, and applying statistical and machine learning techniques for AQI prediction.


Objectives

  • Analyze AQI variations across major Indian cities and states.
  • Identify dominant pollutants influencing AQI values.
  • Examine seasonal patterns in AQI (summer, monsoon, winter).
  • Develop visualizations for clear interpretation of AQI trends.
  • Build predictive models to estimate AQI from pollutant concentrations.

Dataset

  • Source: Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), Open Government Data (OGD) Platform India.
  • Timeframe: 2015 onwards.
  • Features:
    • Location (city/state)
    • AQI value and category (Good, Satisfactory, Moderate, Poor, Very Poor, Severe)
    • Pollutant concentrations: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, CO, O₃, NH₃
    • Date and time

Methodology

🔹 Data Collection & Preprocessing

  • Extracted AQI and pollutant data from CPCB datasets and APIs.
  • Cleaned missing/duplicate entries and standardized units.
  • Structured the dataset for analysis and visualization.

🔹 Exploratory Data Analysis

  • Descriptive statistics to understand pollutant distributions.
  • Time-series analysis for temporal AQI variations.
  • Correlation analysis between AQI and individual pollutants.

🔹 Visualization

  • Heatmaps showing AQI distribution across regions.
  • Seasonal trend analysis through line and bar charts.
  • Geospatial mapping of AQI hotspots.
  • Comparative pollutant contribution plots.

🔹 Machine Learning

  • Regression models (Linear Regression, Random Forest) used for AQI prediction.
  • Feature importance ranking to identify key pollutants.
  • Evaluated models using R², MAE, and RMSE.

Key Findings

  • Northern cities (Delhi, Kanpur, Lucknow) consistently showed poor to severe AQI levels.
  • PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were identified as the most critical pollutants.
  • AQI spikes were most frequent in winter months (Nov–Jan) due to stubble burning and meteorological factors.
  • Southern and coastal cities generally reported better AQI, with occasional traffic and industrial impacts.
  • Predictive models demonstrated that AQI can be effectively estimated using PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, and NO₂ as primary features.

Tools & Technologies

  • Programming Language: Python
  • Libraries: NumPy, Pandas, Matplotlib, Seaborn, Plotly, Folium, Scikit-learn
  • Environment: Jupyter Notebook / Google Colab

Future Work

  • Development of a real-time AQI dashboard.
  • Implementation of deep learning models (LSTM/GRU) for improved prediction accuracy.
  • Integration with health datasets to study AQI impact on respiratory diseases.
  • Long-term AQI forecasting under climate change scenarios.

About

A machine learning project designed to forecast the Air Quality Index (AQI) for India. By analyzing historical air quality and meteorological data

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