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docs: raw-LLM-vs-orc demos (worked examples + large private corpus) - #16

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docs: raw-LLM-vs-orc demos (worked examples + large private corpus)#16
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@Thormatt Thormatt commented Jun 15, 2026

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What

Makes the abstract F1 number concrete: run the same model two ways — a bare LLM call vs orc — on real claims, with real captured output. Two demos, one honest writeup.

  • demos/orc_vs_raw.py — single-passage worked examples (live, gated).
  • demos/orc_large_corpus.py + demos/corpus/ — an 11-document fictional private knowledge base; the case a raw call can't handle.
  • docs/demos/defensible-verification.md — captured output, comparison table, citation-invariant result, competitive table, reproduction commands.
  • README pointer.

The four examples (all honest, nothing rigged)

  1. halueval-803 (fabricated award) — both catch it; orc adds the defensible artifact. Tie.
  2. financebench_id_02747 (AMD CAGR) — both correct; orc's math lands in the trace. Tie.
  3. financebench_id_07081 (CVS ROA) — found by scanning DROP+FinanceBench for raw failures. The production-shaped raw call (quick YES/NO) answers "YES" and rubber-stamps a wrong 0.04 ROA; orc's arithmetic mode computes 0.03 first and rejects. orc-correct, raw-wrong.
  4. Large private corpus — 11 docs the model has never seen, fact buried in one postmortem. A well-aligned model correctly refuses ("I will not fabricate a source"); orc retrieves the right chunk of 18, returns CONTRADICTED / SUPPORTED at 0.99, and cites the exact file. This is the actual moat.

Honest framing (matches competitive.md)

Two regimes, stated plainly: on short single passages a frontier model is already a strong judge, so orc's value is the defensible record; on hard numeric items the quick raw verdict breaks and orc holds; on a private corpus a raw call can't verify at all. orc has its own misses too (~0.86 F1, not 1.0) — the doc says so. Plus the free, reproducible citation invariant (0/300 fabricated IDs leaked).

Testing

  • All output is real live capture (a few cents on the existing OpenRouter key).
  • 401 passed / 2 skipped, ruff clean. New files only — nothing in src/orc changed; demos are not packaged into the wheel/sdist.

Not included (flagged in the doc)

  • Live HHEM head-to-head — harness is wired (--hhem) but not yet run; table cites published numbers.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code


Plus: investor/prospect landing page (site/invest.html/invest)

A standalone page in the existing brand, built around the live proof receipts (CVS ROA correctness gap + private-corpus citation). Responsive, honest claims, noscript fallback. Screenshotted desktop + mobile during build.

Thormatt and others added 3 commits June 14, 2026 21:52
A single legible claim run the same model two ways — a bare LLM call vs
verify_claim — to make the aggregate F1 number concrete. demos/orc_vs_raw.py
runs it live (gated); docs/demos/defensible-verification.md captures the real
output with honest framing: on a frontier model the verdicts tie, so orc's
value is the defensible artifact (validated citation, calibrated confidence,
replayable trace, audit bundle) and the runtime invariant that drops
fabricated citations (0/300 leaked, reproducible for free), not a smarter
answer. Includes the published competitive table and reproduction commands.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Scanned DROP + FinanceBench for items where the production-shaped raw
call (binary YES/NO faithfulness prompt) gets the verdict wrong while
orc gets it right. financebench_id_07081 (CVS ROA): the quick raw call
answers "YES" — rubber-stamping a wrong 0.04 ROA — because it commits
before computing; orc's arithmetic mode computes 0.03 first, then
rejects. Reframes the writeup into two honest regimes: tie on easy
single-passage items (artifact value), raw breaks on hard numeric items
(correctness value). Found by scanning, not invented; orc has its own
misses too.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The single-passage examples are the best case for a raw call (whole
source in the prompt). This adds the opposite: an 11-document fictional
internal knowledge base the model has never seen, with a fact buried in
one postmortem. A well-aligned model correctly REFUSES ("I will not
fabricate a source") — so a raw call simply cannot verify against your
private corpus; a less careful one confabulates. orc retrieves the one
relevant chunk of 18, returns CONTRADICTED / SUPPORTED at 0.99, and
cites the exact source file. demos/orc_large_corpus.py + demos/corpus/,
captured in the writeup; thesis and reproduce section updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@Thormatt Thormatt changed the title docs: raw-LLM-vs-orc worked-example demo docs: raw-LLM-vs-orc demos (worked examples + large private corpus) Jun 15, 2026
Thormatt and others added 3 commits June 14, 2026 22:50
A standalone page (deploys at /invest) in the existing orc brand —
warm-dark, gold accent, Source Serif 4 / Inter / JetBrains Mono. Sells
the runtime to investors and regulated-industry prospects, centered on
the real raw-vs-orc receipts from the demo: the CVS ROA correctness gap
(raw "YES" vs orc 0.03) and the private-corpus case (raw refuses vs orc
cites the exact file). Sections: hero, the problem + EU AI Act clock,
the proof receipts, four primitives, reproducible numbers, category
positioning, pilot-first business model, and an honest "where we are"
(strong engineering, zero distribution). Claims kept accurate and
reproducible; responsive; noscript + safety-net fallbacks so content
never depends on JS.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The "HHEM tokenizer-load issue" was a transformers-5.x incompatibility
with HHEM-2.1-Open's vendored modeling code; pin transformers<5 in the
benchmarks extra to fix it.

New head_to_head.py reuses an existing Orc results.json and scores
HHEM-2.1-Open on the exact same 503 items (no Orc re-spend). Result:
Orc F1 0.864 vs HHEM 0.643 on identical items, threshold 0.5, standard
(passage, answer) input. Verified honest:
- not a context-window artifact (HHEM 0.623 on items inside its 512-tok
  window, 0.693 on truncated ones);
- input format checked — answer-only (0.30 on FinanceBench) beats
  question+answer (0.13), so HHEM gets its more favorable input;
- the gap is concentrated in numeric/tabular reasoning (FinanceBench
  0.30, DROP 0.45) where a consistency encoder can't compute; HHEM stays
  competitive on RAG passages (RAGTruth 0.80).

Caveat kept explicit: this stratified subsample equal-weights the hard
categories, so it's tougher for HHEM than its ~0.75 full-HaluBench
headline — and Orc's 0.864 is on the same harder set.

Updates the competitive doc, the demo writeup table/footnotes, and adds
a same-set head-to-head bar to the investor page. Full accounting +
reproduction in docs/benchmarks/results-2026-06-15-hhem-head-to-head.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add site/eu-ai-act.html — a European-market page mapping the AI Act's
high-risk obligations (Articles 12/13/14/9/72) to the specific artifacts
Orc produces, grounded in docs/compliance/eu-ai-act.md. Deployed via
Pagenta at https://thor.pagenta.app/orc-eu-ai-act. Keeps the doc's honest
framing (Orc produces the evidence; the obligation stays with the
deployer) and accurate dates: Aug 2026 broad applicability, Dec 2027
high-risk Annex III obligations.

Also fix invest.html, which imprecisely put high-risk obligations at
Aug 2026 — corrected to Dec 2027 with the Aug 2026 broad-applicability
context, matching the compliance doc.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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