Add comprehensive Step 4 (ML non-neurali) documentation to project history files

[Copilot]

User had followed the project through Step 3 (statistical models) but lacked documentation explaining what was implemented in Step 4 (non-neural ML). The two project history files (Trascrizione_chat_completa.md, PROMPT_COPILOT_RIPRESA_PROGETTO.md) had no structured explanation of the ML pipeline, its two run variants, or how results compare against Step 3.

Trascrizione_chat_completa.md — new "Parte 4" section

• Full breakdown of all 4 modules in Project/models/ml/:

  • model_config.py — MLStepConfig, metric helpers (RMSE/MAE/MAPE/MBE), log1p+diff inverse transforms, input validators
  • features.py — build_lagged_dataset, select_features (none/rfe/importance), build_model_feature_matrix
  • runner.py — MLModelRunner: grid search on validation, per-lookback FS caching, recursive multi-step forecast, refit on train+val, original-scale metrics
  • plotting.py — transformed-scale and original-scale comparison plots

• Step-by-step pipeline walkthrough (same log1p+diff1 preprocessing and 80/10/10 split as Step 2)

• v1 baseline (main.py, XGBoost off) vs v2 extended (Mains/run_step4_ml_extended.py, XGBoost on, wider grid) — results tables populated from actual CSV artifacts:

Version	Winner	RMSE test (orig scale)
v1	gradient_boosting (lookback=12, lr=0.05)	~19,895
v2	random_forest (lookback=12, max_depth=None)	~25,658
Step 3 SARIMA	—	~6,302

• Anti-leakage guarantees documented: FS on train only, tuning on validation only, test never seen before final refit

PROMPT_COPILOT_RIPRESA_PROGETTO.md — new "Dettaglio Step 4" subsection

Compact version of the same content structured for use as Copilot resume-context, covering architecture, pipeline steps, v1/v2 outcomes, and Step 3 vs Step 4 comparison in scannable bullet form.

Original prompt

In questi file dovrebbe esserci lo storico di quanto fatto nel progetto.
Io ho seguito fino allo step 3, vorrei delucidazioni su quanto fatto nello step 4 ovvero ML non neurali.
So che è definita nella directory ml e che ha un runner della directory Mains, so inoltre che ci sono 2 versioni.
Cerca di spiegarmi tutto al meglio che puoi

The user has attached the following file paths as relevant context:

• PROMPT_COPILOT_RIPRESA_PROGETTO.md
• Trascrizione_chat_completa.md

Created from VS Code.

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