fix(statements): republish the 2026-07-28 weekly, and render the denominator

src/components/brand/StatementCard.astro

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ---
 import { formatCategoryList, type Category } from "@/lib/statement-format/categories";
 import { statementHref } from "@/lib/statement-format/href";
-import { formatPercent } from "@/lib/statement-format/percent";
+import { formatHitRate } from "@/lib/statement-format/hit-rate";
 import { formatPeriodLabel } from "@/lib/statement-format/period";
 import { formatSignedUsd } from "@/lib/statement-format/signed-usd";
 
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ interface Props {
 	periodStart: string;
 	periodEnd: string;
 	hitRate: number;
+	/** Denominator behind `hitRate`. Absent means unknown, never zero. */
+	resolvedCount?: number;
 	alertCount: number;
 	hypotheticalPnlUsd: number;
 	categories: ReadonlyArray<Category>;
@@ -36,7 +38,7 @@ const href = statementHref(props.slug);
 	<dl class="mt-2 grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 font-mono text-sm">
 		<div class="flex flex-col">
 			<dt class="text-eyebrow uppercase text-ink-5">Hit rate</dt>
-			<dd class="text-ink-8">{formatPercent(props.hitRate)}</dd>
+			<dd class="text-ink-8">{formatHitRate(props.hitRate, props.resolvedCount)}</dd>
 		</div>
 		<div class="flex flex-col">
 			<dt class="text-eyebrow uppercase text-ink-5">Alerts</dt>

src/content/statements/2026-07-28-weekly.md

@@ -1,14 +1,15 @@
 ---
 schema_version: 1
 type: weekly
-draft: true
+draft: false
 title: Week of 2026-07-22
 summary: ogsfrompoly weekly statement — 263 alerts, outcomes pending (0 of 263 resolved).
 period_start: '2026-07-22'
 period_end: '2026-07-28'
 bankroll_usd: 10000.0
 alert_count: 263
 hit_rate: 0.0
+resolved_count: 0
 hypothetical_pnl_usd: 199.11
 categories:
 - macro-finance

src/lib/og/card-model.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { SITE_TITLE, SITE_URL } from "@/lib/site/config";
-import { formatPercent } from "@/lib/statement-format/percent";
+import { formatHitRate } from "@/lib/statement-format/hit-rate";
 import { formatPeriodLabel } from "@/lib/statement-format/period";
 import { formatSignedUsd } from "@/lib/statement-format/signed-usd";
 import type { Statement } from "@/lib/statement-format/statement-data";
@@ -61,7 +61,11 @@ export function buildStatementCardModel(statement: Statement): CardModel {
 		)}`,
 		title: statement.title,
 		stats: [
-			{ label: "Hit rate", value: formatPercent(statement.hit_rate), tone: "default" },
+			{
+				label: "Hit rate",
+				value: formatHitRate(statement.hit_rate, statement.resolved_count),
+				tone: "default",
+			},
 			{
 				label: "Hypo. PnL",
 				value: formatSignedUsd(statement.hypothetical_pnl_usd),

src/lib/statement-format/hit-rate.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { describeHitRate, formatHitRate } from "./hit-rate";
+
+describe("formatHitRate", () => {
+	it("reads as pending when nothing has resolved", () => {
+		// `hit_rate: 0` over an empty denominator is vacuous, not a 0% success
+		// rate. Rendering it as "0%" beside the stat's own "above 0.50 is signal"
+		// caption is what put "263 calls, all wrong" on the live site
+		// (auditmos/ogsfrompoly#236).
+		expect(formatHitRate(0, 0)).toBe("pending");
+	});
+
+	it("still reads as a rate when outcomes genuinely all missed", () => {
+		// 0 in favour out of 240 RESOLVED is a real 0%. Keying the wording off the
+		// denominator rather than the rate is what keeps a genuinely bad week from
+		// hiding behind "pending".
+		expect(formatHitRate(0, 240)).toBe("0%");
+	});
+
+	it("renders a percent when outcomes resolved", () => {
+		expect(formatHitRate(0.47, 240)).toBe("47%");
+	});
+
+	it("renders a percent when the denominator is unknown", () => {
+		// Every statement published before `resolved_count` existed omits it.
+		// Absent means unknown, never zero — those must keep rendering as before.
+		expect(formatHitRate(0.51, undefined)).toBe("51%");
+		expect(formatHitRate(0, undefined)).toBe("0%");
+	});
+});
+
+describe("describeHitRate", () => {
+	it("says nothing has settled, and gives the count, when the denominator is empty", () => {
+		// The stat's standing caption ("0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal")
+		// actively misreads an unresolved window. Replace it, don't append to it.
+		const note = describeHitRate(263, 0);
+
+		expect(note).toContain("0 of 263");
+		expect(note).not.toContain("coin flip");
+	});
+
+	it("names the denominator when outcomes did resolve", () => {
+		// Publishing a rate without its denominator is what let the 0.00 pass
+		// unnoticed for a week, so the note carries it in both branches.
+		const note = describeHitRate(263, 240);
+
+		expect(note).toContain("240 of 263");
+		expect(note).toContain("coin flip");
+	});
+
+	it("falls back to the standing note when the denominator is unknown", () => {
+		// The back catalogue omits `resolved_count`; those pages must read exactly
+		// as they did before, with no invented count.
+		const note = describeHitRate(1034, undefined);
+
+		expect(note).toContain("coin flip");
+		expect(note).not.toContain("1034");
+	});
+});

src/lib/statement-format/hit-rate.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+import { formatPercent } from "./percent";
+
+/**
+ * Display value for the hit-rate stat.
+ *
+ * `hit_rate` is `in_favor / resolved` over alerts **emitted** in the period, so
+ * a known-empty denominator makes it vacuous rather than a 0% success rate.
+ * Rendering that as "0%" is what published "263 calls, all wrong"
+ * (auditmos/ogsfrompoly#236).
+ */
+export function formatHitRate(hitRate: number, resolvedCount?: number): string {
+	return resolvedCount === 0 ? "pending" : formatPercent(hitRate);
+}
+
+const STANDING_NOTE =
+	"Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side. 0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal.";
+
+/**
+ * The sentence explaining what the hit-rate stat is measured over.
+ *
+ * An unresolved window gets its own wording rather than an appended caveat: the
+ * standing note's "above 0.50 is signal" reads as a verdict on the number beside
+ * it, which is exactly the misreading a vacuous rate invites.
+ */
+export function describeHitRate(alertCount: number, resolvedCount?: number): string {
+	if (resolvedCount === 0) {
+		return (
+			`No outcomes have settled yet — 0 of ${alertCount} alerts have resolved, ` +
+			"so there is no rate to report. Macro markets typically resolve months " +
+			"after the alert fires."
+		);
+	}
+	if (resolvedCount === undefined) return STANDING_NOTE;
+	return `${STANDING_NOTE} Measured over the ${resolvedCount} of ${alertCount} alerts that have resolved.`;
+}

src/pages/[collection]/[...slug].astro

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import { ogImagePathForStatement } from "@/lib/og/paths";
 import { bucketUsdToNearest, formatBucketedUsd } from "@/lib/statement-format/bucketed-usd";
 import { formatCategoryList } from "@/lib/statement-format/categories";
 import { formatContributionPercent } from "@/lib/statement-format/contribution-percent";
-import { formatPercent } from "@/lib/statement-format/percent";
+import { describeHitRate, formatHitRate } from "@/lib/statement-format/hit-rate";
 import { formatPeriodLabel } from "@/lib/statement-format/period";
 import { monthlyPnlRows, type PnlTone } from "@/lib/statement-format/monthly-pnl";
 import { formatSignedUsd } from "@/lib/statement-format/signed-usd";
@@ -86,10 +86,11 @@ const ogImage =
 					<dl class="not-prose mt-2 mb-10 grid grid-cols-2 gap-6 border-y border-ink-3 py-6 font-mono text-sm sm:grid-cols-4">
 						<div class="flex flex-col gap-1.5">
 							<dt class="text-eyebrow uppercase tracking-wider text-ink-5">Hit rate</dt>
-							<dd class="text-lg text-ink-8">{formatPercent(statement.hit_rate)}</dd>
+							<dd class="text-lg text-ink-8">
+								{formatHitRate(statement.hit_rate, statement.resolved_count)}
+							</dd>
 							<p class="font-sans text-xs leading-snug text-ink-5">
-								Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side.
-								{" "}0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal.
+								{describeHitRate(statement.alert_count, statement.resolved_count)}
 							</p>
 						</div>
 						<div class="flex flex-col gap-1.5">

src/pages/index.astro

@@ -52,6 +52,7 @@ const latest = pickLatestStatement(statements);
 							periodStart={latest.data.period_start}
 							periodEnd={latest.data.period_end}
 							hitRate={latest.data.hit_rate}
+							resolvedCount={latest.data.resolved_count}
 							alertCount={latest.data.alert_count}
 							hypotheticalPnlUsd={latest.data.hypothetical_pnl_usd}
 							categories={latest.data.categories}

src/pages/statements/index.astro

@@ -50,6 +50,7 @@ const statements = sortStatementsNewestFirst(
 							periodStart={entry.data.period_start}
 							periodEnd={entry.data.period_end}
 							hitRate={entry.data.hit_rate}
+							resolvedCount={entry.data.resolved_count}
 							alertCount={entry.data.alert_count}
 							hypotheticalPnlUsd={entry.data.hypothetical_pnl_usd}
 							categories={entry.data.categories}