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Catalyst Swing Intelligence

A Claude Code skill for structuring catalyst-driven market research, Wisdom-of-the-Crowds signal assessment, and swing-trade decision discipline.


What This Is

A decision-support framework for:

  • evaluating the quality, independence, specificity, and trajectory of crowd signals
  • structuring catalyst-driven swing trade theses with required invalidation conditions
  • managing concentration risk with explicit thresholds
  • making pre-earnings decisions with pre-written action plans
  • separating long-horizon capital from short-term swing accounts
  • planning exits toward hard liquidity deadlines
  • publishing crowd signal analyses with mandatory financial disclaimers

The core function is to evaluate whether a crowd narrative is coherent and well-evidenced — not to tell users what to buy.


What This Is Not

This is not a stock-picking bot, financial adviser, signal service, performance guarantee, buy score, risk score, expected-return model, or personalized investment recommendation.

The Crowd Signal Quality Score measures evidence convergence. It does not measure expected return, security safety, or whether a user should buy, sell, or hold anything.

See DISCLAIMER.md and docs/legal-risk-release-checklist.md.


Who This Is For

  • Retail investors who want structured decision discipline before deploying capital
  • Traders who want pre-written exit and invalidation rules for every position
  • Users who want to separate crowd signal quality from trade fit
  • Anyone who wants to keep private portfolio context out of public skill logic

Quick Start

# 1. Copy the skill into your Claude skills directory
cp -r skills/catalyst-swing-intelligence/ ~/.claude/skills/

# 2. Copy and fill in your private personalization
cp skills/catalyst-swing-intelligence/PERSONALIZATION.example.md \
   skills/catalyst-swing-intelligence/PERSONALIZATION.local.md

# 3. Edit PERSONALIZATION.local.md with your own accounts, risk limits, and rules
# 4. Never commit PERSONALIZATION.local.md

Companion Skills

This skill works best alongside two companion skills (not included here):

  • staged-position-entry — entry discipline, tranche sizing, blended cost basis, dry powder rules
  • thesis-break-protocol — exit rules when a thesis fails, three-strike rule, rationalization checklist

Which Mode Should I Use?

See docs/mode-decision-tree.md.

User intent Mode
"What is the crowd saying?" crowd-scan
"Build a trade thesis." thesis-build
"Should I hold through earnings?" earnings-gate
"One position is too large." concentration-check
"What is the macro regime?" macro-first
"I have cash after a trim." next-cycle
"There is a geopolitical event." geopolitical-catalyst
"I'm second-guessing a trim." regret-check
"Write a compliant social post." publish-signal
"This is a long-term account." long-horizon-account
"I have a hard liquidity deadline." liquidation-plan

How Crowd Signals Are Scored

See docs/crowd-signal-scoring.md.

The Crowd Signal Quality Score (0–100) measures evidence convergence:

  • Signal volume, source independence, specificity, evidence quality, time acceleration, catalyst alignment, and dissent quality
  • Penalties for meme/hype, crowding, price-movement, single-source, and loose baskets
  • Signal trajectory classification: Emerging → Accelerating → Mainstreaming → Saturated → Fading
Crowd Signal Quality  ≠  Security Risk  ≠  Trade Decision

A high score means the signal is well-evidenced. It does not mean you should buy.


Public vs Private Files

This repository contains only public reusable methodology.

Never commit:

  • current holdings or cost basis
  • personal or family names
  • account values or balances
  • liquidity deadlines
  • tax details
  • personalized financial plans
  • PERSONALIZATION.local.md

PERSONALIZATION.local.md is gitignored by default. Use PERSONALIZATION.example.md as a template.


Contributing

See CONTRIBUTING.md, docs/contributor-evaluation-checklist.md, and docs/legal-risk-release-checklist.md.


Guided Local Workflow

New users can run:

python tools/csi/csi.py wizard

This walks through the evidence-to-memory workflow without requiring users to memorize every command. Use --dry-run to preview the steps non-interactively.


Reference Implementation

This repo includes a minimal search-first reference implementation under tools/csi/.

It does not require paid APIs.

It can generate search queries, validate and import evidence, score evidence deterministically, write a markdown crowd signal report, and store observations in a local memory flywheel.

Use it when you want a low-cost local workflow or a deterministic scoring helper for the agent skill.

python tools/csi/csi.py queries "AI data center power scarcity"
python tools/csi/csi.py template --output evidence.csv
python tools/csi/csi.py score tools/csi/sample_evidence.csv
python tools/csi/csi.py report tools/csi/sample_evidence.csv --output report.md
python tools/csi/csi.py demo

See tools/csi/README.md and docs/reference-implementation.md.


Memory Flywheel

The reference implementation can store scored crowd-signal observations locally, attach later outcome reviews, generate monthly effectiveness reviews, and suggest updates to a local crowd-signal playbook.

This helps evaluate which crowd-signal patterns were useful over time.

It does not evaluate whether the skill picked winning securities.

The crowd-signal playbook is not an investment playbook and must not suggest purchases, investments, trades, position sizing, or buy/sell/hold actions.

python tools/csi/csi.py observe tools/csi/sample_evidence.csv --theme "AI infrastructure"
python tools/csi/csi.py list
python tools/csi/csi.py outcome SIGNAL_ID --usefulness useful --failure-mode none
python tools/csi/csi.py monthly-review --month 2026-05
python tools/csi/csi.py playbook

See docs/memory-flywheel.md.


Contributing Safely

This project welcomes contributions that improve crowd-signal assessment, evidence quality, scoring consistency, documentation, and local operability.

The official repo does not accept changes that turn the project into a stock picker, signal service, financial advice tool, portfolio allocator, or recommendation engine.

Before opening a PR, read:

All PRs should preserve:

Crowd Signal Quality ≠ Security Risk ≠ Trade Decision
Crowd Signal Playbook ≠ Investment Playbook

Official Repo vs Forks

Open source means anyone can fork the project. The official repository maintains stricter standards: tests must pass, non-advisory boundaries must remain intact, and private-data protections must not be weakened.


Known Gaps and Roadmap

This project is usable today as a search-first, local, deterministic crowd-signal intelligence workflow. The current known gaps are:

  1. No built-in web search runner yet.
  2. No local dashboard yet.
  3. No large-scale real-world calibration yet.

See docs/known-gaps.md and docs/roadmap.md.


Evaluation Tests

See docs/evaluation-tests.md for a manual test suite to run after any change to SKILL.md.

See docs/testing-guide.md for the automated test suite for the reference implementation.


Disclaimer

This is a decision-support framework, not financial advice. See DISCLAIMER.md for the full disclaimer.

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A Claude Code skill for catalyst-driven swing trade analysis and Wisdom-of-the-Crowds signal assessment

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