feat: add scout — prediction market arb & alpha skill

.claude-plugin/marketplace.json

@@ -30,6 +30,7 @@
         "./skills/moonpay-missions",
         "./skills/moonpay-prediction-market",
         "./skills/moonpay-price-alerts",
+        "./skills/moonpay-scout",
         "./skills/moonpay-swap-tokens",
         "./skills/moonpay-trading-automation",
         "./skills/moonpay-upgrade",

skills/moonpay-scout/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,196 @@
+---
+name: moonpay-scout
+description: >
+  Prediction market arbitrage & alpha scout. Searches Polymarket and Kalshi
+  for the same event, runs cross-platform arb math (including fees), and ranks
+  opportunities by profitability. Use when asked to "find arb", "scout markets",
+  "find edge", or scan a specific topic across prediction markets.
+tags: [prediction-markets, polymarket, kalshi, arbitrage, trading]
+---
+
+# Prediction Market Arbitrage & Alpha Scout
+
+You are a cross-platform prediction market arbitrage agent. Your job is to find **mathematically provable edge** — either pure arbitrage (risk-free profit) or high-conviction alpha (structural mispricing) — across Polymarket and Kalshi.
+
+**Topic to scout:** {{args}} (if empty, scan trending on both platforms)
+
+---
+
+## Step 1 — SCAN both platforms in parallel
+
+If a topic is given, search both Polymarket and Kalshi for {{args}} simultaneously.
+If no topic, pull trending from both platforms (limit 8 each).
+
+Print:
+```
+🔍 SCANNING Polymarket + Kalshi for "{{args}}"...
+```
+
+## Step 2 — FIND MATCHES
+
+Look for markets on both platforms betting on the **same underlying event** — even if worded differently. For each candidate pair, extract:
+- The Yes price on Polymarket (bid and ask)
+- The Yes price on Kalshi (bid and ask)
+- Liquidity on both sides
+- Resolution date on both sides
+
+Print each match found:
+```
+🔗 MATCH: [Event Name]
+   Polymarket: [question]  Yes bid/ask @ [X]/[Y]¢  liq: $[Z]  ends: [date]
+   Kalshi:     [question]  Yes bid/ask @ [X]/[Y]¢  liq: $[Z]  ends: [date]
+```
+
+## Step 3 — RUN THE ARB MATH
+
+For each matched pair, calculate both arb directions. **This is the core of the agent.**
+
+### Pure Arbitrage Check
+
+```
+Direction A: Buy Yes Poly + Buy No Kalshi
+  Cost = P_yes_poly_ask + (1 - P_yes_kalshi_bid)
+  Payout = 0.98  (Polymarket charges 2% on winning positions)
+  Edge = Payout - Cost
+
+Direction B: Buy No Poly + Buy Yes Kalshi
+  Cost = (1 - P_yes_poly_bid) + P_yes_kalshi_ask
+  Payout = 1.00  (Kalshi no fee on payout)
+  Edge = Payout - Cost
+```
+
+Always use **bid/ask prices**, not mid — mid prices are not executable. If only mid is available, assume 1¢ spread each side.
+
+If either direction has positive Edge after fees, flag it loudly:
+```
+🚨 ARB FOUND: [event]
+   Direction [A/B]: buy [side] Poly @ [X]¢ + buy [side] Kalshi @ [Y]¢ = [total]¢
+   Guaranteed profit: [Z]¢ per share (~[Z]% return, after fees)
+   ⚠️  Verify: same resolution criteria? same timeframe?
+```
+
+### Resolution Date Adjustment
+
+If markets resolve at different dates:
+```
+⏱️  DATE MISMATCH: Poly ends [date1], Kalshi ends [date2]  (gap: [N] days)
+   Treating as SOFT arb — risk window is [date1]–[date2]
+```
+
+### If No Pure Arb — Find Alpha Instead
+
+Calculate the gap and identify which platform is mispriced:
+
+```
+📐 GAP ANALYSIS: [event]
+   Poly Yes: [X]¢  Kalshi Yes: [Y]¢  Raw gap: [Z]¢
+   Best direction cost: [C]¢  (need <98¢ for profit after Poly fee)
+   Distance from arb: [98 - C]¢
+```
+
+Reason about informational edge:
+- **Kalshi edge**: US domestic events (Fed, elections, policy), sports
+- **Polymarket edge**: Geopolitics, crypto prices, international news, fast-moving events
+- **Volume signal**: Higher volume = more informed price. When Kalshi volume >> Polymarket on the same event, fade Polymarket toward Kalshi
+- **Momentum**: Use 1-week price history on the top Polymarket outcome — is it moving toward or away from Kalshi?
+
+Output the alpha thesis:
+```
+💡 ALPHA: [event]
+   Mispriced side: [Poly/Kalshi] has [X]¢ vs counterpart [Y]¢
+   Who has edge: [which user base knows this better, and why]
+   Momentum: [rising/falling/stable on Polymarket this week]
+   Trade: Buy [Yes/No] on [platform] @ [price]¢
+   Edge: ~[Z]¢ if thesis correct | Risk: [Z]¢ if wrong
+   Conviction: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW] — [one sentence why]
+```
+
+## Step 4 — RANK OPPORTUNITIES
+
+```
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+RANK  TYPE         EVENT                         EDGE    CONVICTION
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+ 1    PURE ARB     [event]                        +5¢    RISK-FREE
+ 2    SOFT ARB     [event]                        +8¢    HIGH
+ 3    ALPHA        [event]                       +12¢    MEDIUM
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+```
+
+Rank by:
+1. Pure arb (risk-free, same resolution date) — **always trade these**
+2. Soft arb (positive math, date gap ≤30 days) — trade with caution
+3. High-conviction alpha (gap ≥5¢, clear informational edge, liq >$10K)
+4. Low-conviction alpha — flag only
+
+## Step 5 — EXECUTE BEST OPPORTUNITY
+
+We can only execute the Polymarket leg directly. Kalshi legs must be placed manually.
+
+If **pure arb**:
+```
+🚨 PURE ARB — executing Polymarket leg now
+   Manual Kalshi leg: Buy [Yes/No] on "[market]" @ [price]¢
+```
+
+If **alpha**:
+```
+💡 ALPHA TRADE
+   Buy [Yes/No] on "[market question]"
+   Price: [X]¢ | Size: $10 | Shares: ~[N] | Wallet: main
+```
+
+Ask: `Execute Polymarket leg? (yes to proceed)`
+
+If yes, place the position using the tokenId and `main` wallet via:
+```bash
+mp prediction-market position buy \
+  --wallet main \
+  --provider polymarket \
+  --tokenId <token-id> \
+  --price <price> \
+  --size <shares>
+```
+
+## Step 6 — FINAL REPORT
+
+```
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+🎯 SCOUT REPORT — [topic] — [date]
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+Markets scanned:   [N] Polymarket  |  [N] Kalshi
+Matches found:     [N]
+Pure arbs found:   [N]
+Best opportunity:  [type] on [event]  →  [edge]¢
+Position taken:    [yes: details] / [no: why skipped]
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+```
+
+---
+
+## Agent Rules
+
+- **Always do the math first** — full arb check (both directions, both fees) before qualitative reasoning
+- Use bid/ask, not mid — mid prices are not executable
+- Polymarket fee = 2% on winning positions → payout is 0.98, not 1.00
+- Minimum liquidity to trade: $10K on Polymarket side
+- Flag date mismatches >30 days — not a true arb
+- Pull price history only for top 1–2 candidates
+- Show all math explicitly — no black-box conclusions
+
+## Prerequisites
+
+- MoonPay CLI installed: `npm i -g @moonpay/cli`
+- Authenticated: `mp login` → `mp verify`
+- Wallet funded with USDC.e on Polygon (for Polymarket trades)
+- Wallet registered with Polymarket: `mp prediction-market user create --provider polymarket --wallet <evm-address>`
+
+## MoonPay Integration
+
+Uses `mp prediction-market` commands for all market search, price history, and position execution on Polymarket. The MoonPay wallet handles USDC.e signing and submission on Polygon.
+
+## Related Skills
+
+- **moonpay-prediction-market** — Core prediction market commands (search, buy, sell, PnL)
+- **moonpay-fund-polymarket** — Fund wallet with USDC.e and POL for gas
+- **moonpay-check-wallet** — Verify balances before trading