fix(stations): 20-city Kalshi universe — drop 4 phantom cities, add NOLA/OKC/SATX

.github/workflows/run-weather-backfill.yml

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ name: Run weather backfill fleet (28-21)
 # ROLLOUT GATE (operator sequence): the DEFAULT run is a 1-STATION PILOT
 # (task_count=1) — cheap, proves the read→reduce→R2-upload loop + the big-bytes
 # firewall end to end. The FULL fleet shards station×year (28-28): one array task
-# per (station, year), so task_count = 65 stations × N years (the Kalshi∪Polymarket
+# per (station, year), so task_count = 64 stations × N years (the Kalshi∪Polymarket
 # roster minus the non-satellite HKO, D-28.8; N = current UTC year - 2017 + 1). It
 # reduces ~28 TB of raw imagery in-region and is the phase's
 # largest spend — it is BLOCKED unless the operator sets mode=full AND
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ on:
         default: "latest"
         type: string
       mode:
-        description: "pilot = 1 station, 1 monolithic task (cheap smoke test, default). station = 1+ stations sharded across ALL years (task_count = stations × years; the fast full-single-station cost/speed run, e.g. KNYC 2017..now ACMC+DSRF — NOT cost-gated, bounded by station count). full = the 65-station×year fleet (~28 TB reduce; needs cost sign-off; non-GOES shards no-op, native ring is 28-26)."
+        description: "pilot = 1 station, 1 monolithic task (cheap smoke test, default). station = 1+ stations sharded across ALL years (task_count = stations × years; the fast full-single-station cost/speed run, e.g. KNYC 2017..now ACMC+DSRF — NOT cost-gated, bounded by station count). full = the 64-station×year fleet (~28 TB reduce; needs cost sign-off; non-GOES shards no-op, native ring is 28-26)."
         required: true
         default: "pilot"
         type: choice
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ jobs:
       - name: Enforce the cost sign-off gate for a full run
         run: |
           if [ "${{ inputs.mode }}" = "full" ] && [ "${{ inputs.confirm_cost_signoff }}" != "true" ]; then
-            echo "::error::mode=full runs the 65-shard ~28 TB fleet (the phase's largest spend)."
+            echo "::error::mode=full runs the 64-shard ~28 TB fleet (the phase's largest spend)."
             echo "::error::Set confirm_cost_signoff=true (H5 pilot cost sign-off) to proceed, or use mode=pilot."
             exit 1
           fi
@@ -154,16 +154,16 @@ jobs:
           IMAGE="${AR_HOST}/${AR_PROJECT}/${AR_REPO}/${IMAGE_NAME}:${IMAGE_TAG}"
           if [ "$MODE" = "full" ]; then
             # Station×year sharding (28-28): one array task per (station, year), so
-            # TASK_COUNT = stations × years. Stations = 65 (the Kalshi∪Polymarket
-            # union (66) minus the one non-satellite station HKO,
+            # TASK_COUNT = stations × years. Stations = 64 (the Kalshi∪Polymarket
+            # union (65) minus the one non-satellite station HKO,
             # _roster._NON_SATELLITE_STATIONS — one shard base per satellite-
             # resolvable station). Years = the roster default window
             # [2017 .. current UTC year] inclusive. year_start MUST match the CLI's
             # _DEFAULT_ROSTER_YEAR_START (2017); year_end is pinned to today's UTC
             # year and passed EXPLICITLY so the CLI's derived num_years matches this
             # TASK_COUNT exactly (else the station×year decomposition would not
             # trigger and shards would round-robin over the full range).
-            STATIONS=65
+            STATIONS=64
             FULL_YEAR_START=2017
             FULL_YEAR_END=$(date -u +%Y)
             NUM_YEARS=$(( FULL_YEAR_END - FULL_YEAR_START + 1 ))
@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ jobs:
             PARALLELISM=48
             CPU_MILLI=16000
             MEM_MIB=65536
-            # Roster mode: the CLI resolves the 65-station roster and decomposes
+            # Roster mode: the CLI resolves the 64-station roster and decomposes
             # BATCH_TASK_INDEX into (station, year). --year-start/--year-end pin the
             # window so num_years == this NUM_YEARS. --max-workers 16 matches the
             # n2-standard-16 fleet machine (16 vCPU). Only override the roster's
@@ -230,7 +230,7 @@ jobs:
             # Mid-tier machine: n2-standard-8 (8 vCPU / 32 GiB) — DSRF full-disk
             # decode is CPU/mem heavy (--executor process), so bigger than the
             # pilot's n2-standard-4, but one station is far cheaper than the
-            # 65-station fleet. Run all year-shards concurrently (parallelism
+            # 64-station fleet. Run all year-shards concurrently (parallelism
             # capped at 48 to match the fleet's Spot-availability ceiling).
             # n2-standard-16 (compute budget approved 2026-07-05): with the
             # spawn process pool + the probe-raised rate cap, decode scales

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -4,6 +4,27 @@ All notable changes to `mostlyright`. The format follows [Keep a Changelog](http
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+### Fixed
+
+- **Settlement-station registry: the Kalshi daily-temp universe is 20 cities,
+  not 21 (live-universe audit, 2026-07-15).** The v0.1.0 scope doc drifted from
+  the live exchange: DTW/CVG/BNA/SLC never had daily-temperature markets (every
+  series probe 404s) and three real market cities were missing. Parity-critical —
+  a backtest keyed to the phantom four settled against data no market resolves on.
+  - `KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS`: dropped `DTW`/`CVG`/`BNA`/`SLC`; added
+    `NOLA` → KMSY (NOT Lakefront KNEW), `OKC` → KOKC, `SATX` → KSAT (NOT
+    Stinson KSSF). `KNOWN_WRONG_STATIONS` gains KNEW + KSSF.
+  - Core catalog `kalshi` venue tags follow (KMSY/KOKC/KSAT tagged;
+    KDTW/KCVG/KBNA/KSLC remain as bare weather stations, records kept).
+  - `_KALSHI_TICKER_ALIASES` now resolves the live `KXHIGHT<CITY>` /
+    `KXLOWT<CITY>` series family (`KXHIGHTATL`, `KXLOWTNYC`, …, plus
+    `KXHIGHPHIL`/`KXHIGHNYD`/`KXHIGHTEMPDEN`), which previously failed
+    city-ticker lookup for every city except Las Vegas.
+  - Satellite backfill roster: union is 65 stations (satellite roster 64;
+    `batch.tf`/workflow task math updated in lockstep).
+  - Schemas + generated TS data modules re-exported; Python and TS contract
+    tests re-pinned to the 20-city universe.
+
 ## [1.17.0] — 2026-07-14 — Registry API redesign: the `align` / `spine` / `sources` ladder + per-domain `pairs()`
 
 Minor release, dual-SDK (PyPI 1.17.0 + npm 1.17.0 in lockstep). Phase 34 answers

infra/batch.tf

@@ -83,15 +83,15 @@ resource "google_storage_bucket_iam_member" "backfill_progress_rw" {
 #
 #   task_group:
 #     # Station×year sharding (28-28): ONE array task per (station, year), so
-#     # task_count = 65 stations × N years.
-#     task_count  = 65 * N  # 65 = Kalshi∪Polymarket roster (66) MINUS the one non-
+#     # task_count = 64 stations × N years.
+#     task_count  = 64 * N  # 64 = Kalshi∪Polymarket roster (65) MINUS the one non-
 #                        # satellite station HKO (_roster._NON_SATELLITE_STATIONS;
 #                        # HKO has no satellite StationInfo → a shard for it would
 #                        # resolve to zero partitions). One shard BASE per satellite-
 #                        # resolvable station (D-28.8), fanned out across N years.
 #                        # N = current_UTC_year - 2017 + 1 (roster default window).
 #                        # run-weather-backfill.yml computes the SAME
-#                        # TASK_COUNT = 65 * NUM_YEARS and pins --year-start 2017
+#                        # TASK_COUNT = 64 * NUM_YEARS and pins --year-start 2017
 #                        # / --year-end <current year> so the CLI's derived num_years
 #                        # matches — keep them in LOCKSTEP with the roster + window.
 #                        # NOTE: the container passes no --satellites, so each shard

packages-ts/core/src/data/generated/stations.ts

@@ -222,9 +222,7 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -86.6782,
     name: "Nashville International",
     tz: "America/Chicago",
-    venues: [
-      "kalshi",
-    ],
+    venues: [],
   },
   {
     code: "BOS",
@@ -248,9 +246,7 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -84.6678,
     name: "Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International",
     tz: "America/New_York",
-    venues: [
-      "kalshi",
-    ],
+    venues: [],
   },
   {
     code: "DAL",
@@ -313,9 +309,7 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -83.3534,
     name: "Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County",
     tz: "America/New_York",
-    venues: [
-      "kalshi",
-    ],
+    venues: [],
   },
   {
     code: "HOU",
@@ -432,7 +426,9 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -90.258,
     name: "New Orleans Louis Armstrong International",
     tz: "America/Chicago",
-    venues: [],
+    venues: [
+      "kalshi",
+    ],
   },
   {
     code: "NYC",
@@ -456,7 +452,9 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -97.6007,
     name: "Oklahoma City Will Rogers World",
     tz: "America/Chicago",
-    venues: [],
+    venues: [
+      "kalshi",
+    ],
   },
   {
     code: "ORD",
@@ -506,7 +504,9 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -98.4698,
     name: "San Antonio International",
     tz: "America/Chicago",
-    venues: [],
+    venues: [
+      "kalshi",
+    ],
   },
   {
     code: "SEA",
@@ -545,9 +545,7 @@ export const STATIONS: ReadonlyArray<StationInfo> = [
     longitude: -111.9778,
     name: "Salt Lake City International",
     tz: "America/Denver",
-    venues: [
-      "kalshi",
-    ],
+    venues: [],
   },
   {
     code: "LEBL",

packages-ts/core/tests/stations.test.ts

@@ -3,7 +3,9 @@ import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 import { STATIONS } from "../src/data/generated/stations.js";
 import { CATALOG, type Station, StationCatalog } from "../src/index.js";
 
-// The 21 Kalshi NHIGH/NLOW settlement ICAOs (mirrors the markets citations).
+// The 20 Kalshi NHIGH/NLOW settlement ICAOs (mirrors the markets citations).
+// 2026-07 live-universe audit: KDTW/KCVG/KBNA/KSLC out (no live markets),
+// KMSY/KOKC/KSAT in (NOLA/OKC/SATX series are live).
 const KALSHI_ICAOS = new Set([
   "KATL",
   "KAUS",
@@ -21,20 +23,21 @@ const KALSHI_ICAOS = new Set([
   "KSEA",
   "KSFO",
   "KIAH",
-  "KDTW",
-  "KCVG",
-  "KBNA",
-  "KSLC",
   "KLAS",
+  "KMSY",
+  "KOKC",
+  "KSAT",
 ]);
 
 // Registry stations no prediction-market venue settles against. Phase 23 grew
-// this from 4 to 29: 3 US bare (KHOU moved TO polymarket) + 26 intl (roster
+// this from 4 to 29; the 2026-07 audit swapped the US membership (4 bare US
+// stations now: the ex-Kalshi KDTW/KCVG/KBNA/KSLC) + 26 intl (roster
 // drops + the London/Moscow/Taipei/HK/Paris move-sources).
 const NO_VENUE_ICAOS = new Set([
-  "KMSY",
-  "KOKC",
-  "KSAT",
+  "KBNA",
+  "KCVG",
+  "KDTW",
+  "KSLC",
   "EDDB",
   "EDDF",
   "EGKK",
@@ -95,7 +98,7 @@ describe("StationCatalog", () => {
 
   it("kalshi venue equals the settlement universe, NOT every US station", () => {
     expect(icaosOf(CATALOG.filterByVenue("kalshi"))).toEqual(KALSHI_ICAOS);
-    expect(CATALOG.filterByVenue("kalshi").length).toBe(21);
+    expect(CATALOG.filterByVenue("kalshi").length).toBe(20);
   });
 
   it("polymarket venue is the explicit 50-station roster, NOT every intl", () => {

packages-ts/markets/src/data/generated/kalshi-stations.ts

@@ -16,10 +16,6 @@ export const KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS: Readonly<Record<string, KalshiStation>>
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighaus (Austin-Bergstrom; the only Austin station Kalshi cites)",
     station: "KAUS",
   },
-  BNA: {
-    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighbna (Nashville International)",
-    station: "KBNA",
-  },
   BOS: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighbos (Boston Logan)",
     station: "KBOS",
@@ -28,10 +24,6 @@ export const KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS: Readonly<Record<string, KalshiStation>>
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighchi (Midway, NOT ORD)",
     station: "KMDW",
   },
-  CVG: {
-    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighcvg (Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International)",
-    station: "KCVG",
-  },
   DAL: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighdal (DFW, NOT Love Field)",
     station: "KDFW",
@@ -44,10 +36,6 @@ export const KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS: Readonly<Record<string, KalshiStation>>
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighden (Denver International)",
     station: "KDEN",
   },
-  DTW: {
-    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighdtw (Detroit Metropolitan)",
-    station: "KDTW",
-  },
   HOU: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighhou (Intercontinental, NOT Hobby; Kalshi cites IAH)",
     station: "KIAH",
@@ -64,10 +52,18 @@ export const KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS: Readonly<Record<string, KalshiStation>>
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighmsp (Minneapolis-St. Paul International)",
     station: "KMSP",
   },
+  NOLA: {
+    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhightnola (Louis Armstrong Intl, NOT Lakefront KNEW; settles vs NWS CLIMSY)",
+    station: "KMSY",
+  },
   NYC: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighny  (Central Park, NOT LGA/JFK)",
     station: "KNYC",
   },
+  OKC: {
+    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhightokc (Will Rogers World Airport)",
+    station: "KOKC",
+  },
   PHL: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighphl (Philadelphia International)",
     station: "KPHL",
@@ -76,6 +72,10 @@ export const KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS: Readonly<Record<string, KalshiStation>>
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighphx (Sky Harbor International)",
     station: "KPHX",
   },
+  SATX: {
+    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhightsatx (San Antonio Intl, NOT Stinson KSSF)",
+    station: "KSAT",
+  },
   SEA: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighsea (SeaTac, NOT BFI)",
     station: "KSEA",
@@ -84,10 +84,6 @@ export const KALSHI_SETTLEMENT_STATIONS: Readonly<Record<string, KalshiStation>>
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighsfo (San Francisco International, NOT OAK)",
     station: "KSFO",
   },
-  SLC: {
-    citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/khighslc (Salt Lake City International)",
-    station: "KSLC",
-  },
   TLV: {
     citation: "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhightlv (Harry Reid/McCarran; settles vs NWS CLILAS)",
     station: "KLAS",
@@ -102,6 +98,8 @@ export const KNOWN_WRONG_STATIONS: ReadonlySet<string> = new Set<string>([
   "KIAD",
   "KJFK",
   "KLGA",
+  "KNEW",
   "KOAK",
   "KORD",
+  "KSSF",
 ]);

packages/core/src/mostlyright/_compose.py

@@ -31,8 +31,36 @@
 #: ROADMAP example) would fail to resolve.
 _KALSHI_TICKER_ALIASES: dict[str, str] = {
     "NY": "NYC",
-    # All other Kalshi cities use the canonical 3-letter slug as their
-    # ticker suffix verbatim (identity mapping is implicit).
+    "NYD": "NYC",  # KXHIGHNYD — NYC daily series variant
+    "PHIL": "PHL",  # KXHIGHPHIL / KXLOWPHIL
+    # The modern "KXHIGHT<CITY>" / "KXLOWT<CITY>" series family (verified
+    # against the live Kalshi series list, 2026-07-15): after the KX→K
+    # normalization the parser sees KHIGHT<CITY>, so the extracted suffix
+    # carries a leading "T" that must be stripped to reach the canonical
+    # catalog key. (TLV is NOT aliased — it is itself the catalog key for
+    # Las Vegas, from exactly this parsing of KXHIGHTLV.)
+    "TATL": "ATL",
+    "TAUS": "AUS",
+    "TBOS": "BOS",
+    "TCHI": "CHI",
+    "TDAL": "DAL",
+    "TDC": "DCA",
+    "TDEN": "DEN",
+    "TEMPDEN": "DEN",  # KXHIGHTEMPDEN — legacy Denver series
+    "THOU": "HOU",
+    "TLAX": "LAX",
+    "TMIA": "MIA",
+    "TMIN": "MSP",
+    "TNOLA": "NOLA",
+    "TNYC": "NYC",
+    "TOKC": "OKC",
+    "TPHIL": "PHL",
+    "TPHX": "PHX",
+    "TSATX": "SATX",
+    "TSEA": "SEA",
+    "TSFO": "SFO",
+    # All other Kalshi cities use the canonical slug as their ticker
+    # suffix verbatim (identity mapping is implicit).
 }