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ecb-spf

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chirindaopensource / forecasting_macroeconomic_scenarios_synthetic_llm_personas

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End-to-End Python replication of Iadisernia & Camassa’s LLM macroeconomic forecasting methodology (ICAIF 2025). Implements: 2,368 synthetic economist profiles, 120,000+ GPT-4o forecasts across 50 European Central Bank (ECB) SPF rounds, a rigorous ablation study with Monte Carlo & binomial hypothesis testing.

natural-language-processing async-python hypothesis-testing time-series-analysis computational-economics central-banking nlp-pipeline forecast-evaluation ablation-study openai-api prompt-engineering economic-research research-replication macroeconomic-forecasting ecb-spf llm-forecasting gpt-4-or-gpt-5 persona-based-prompting survey-of-professional-forecasters
  • Updated Nov 6, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

chirindaopensource / auditable_AI_agent_loop_for_empirical_economics

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End-to-End Python implementation of Shin (2026)'s evaluator-locked agentic loop for transparent empirical research. Combines LLM-driven specification search with immutable evaluation harnesses, penalized regression (peLASSO), and Diebold-Mariano testing on ECB forecast data. Addresses the "garden of forking paths" crisis in AI-driven economics.

time-series reproducible-research scikit-learn cross-validation lasso econometrics ridge-regression audit-trail forecast-combination gdp-forecasting prompt-engineering diebold-mariano research-automation anthropic-claude llm-agents agentic-ai ecb-spf specification-search python-econometrics ast-sandboxing
  • Updated Mar 22, 2026
  • Jupyter Notebook

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